Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.
What do you think?
First image is 2024, second is 2020.
what’s the source of the ‘final numbers’ because they do not agree with what i have been able to find? and how can they be final when no one knows how any individual voted?
Democrats failed to solve people’s issues. That’s just it.
But Americans are in for a hard awakening if they think that in general Latin American population is progressive or left leaning. And that democrats have their guaranteed vote.
Each person is different, of course. And the average doesn’t change any person individual values.
But on average Latin American countries tend to have overwhelming conservative cultures when compared with USA/Europe.
This doesn’t negate any Latin American person who is progressive, of course. Just talking about averages and the reality that was shown by the polls.
In general Democrats, and any left leaning party, think that because they defend immigrants, immigrants will support them by default. This has been shown far from the truth. If someone have conservative values they will probably vote for a conservative party. That’s just it. One person won’t become progressive (as in stopping being sexist or transphobic) just because they moved from one country to another. An immigrant is a whole person with their own sets of values, both before and after they migrate, and won’t be reduced to “being an immigrant” when voting, specially once they are legally settled in a place and their residence won’t be at risk, they will just vote for their values. If they have conservative values they’ll vote conservative if they have progressive values they’ll vote progressive.
Many legal immigrants get pissed if you conflate them with illegal immigrants. They try very hard distance themselves from those people. Couple that with pervasive machismo and Catholic ignorance and this is what you get.
Actually beautiful comment. Thank you.
After Donald Trump called every stripe of Latino, rapists and murderers, publicly, often and loudly, More Latinos voted for Donald Trump in this past election than have ever voted for any Republican candidate in any American election ever. Spin it any way you like.
I used to joke that America is a terrible place, full of narcisists, liars, and assholes.
Trump isn’t the cause of this. He’s just exposed how much those jokes are based on reality, and are no longer jokes.
He’s brought to the forefront our worst qualities, and confirmed the fact that no matter how much progress America has made, we’re all still just a bunch of racists and assholes. And this time it’s not a joke. It’s confirmed.
It appears that’s what won him the election. Yes turnout was down, but the demo percentages from 2020 to 2024 are not that much different outside of Latino voters.
And I must ask? How did Trump pull this off? And would Kamala have won without the Latino rightward shift?
Donald Trump doubled (+100%) the black vote he received in 2020. Across the board minorities saw change in putting Trump back in the big seat, as apposed to the disaster he will bring to them, and their families. People went through the pandemic, only to be hit with what’s felt like the largest peacetime inflation, which was not handled by the Biden administration. Normal people don’t care about economic numbers when their paying 30-50% more for milk, eggs, bread, and rent. When faced with more of the same with no real enumerated plan to get better, and back patting, they voted for different, come what may. You know which minority group didn’t break right, Jews (+5% 3.5% being the margin of error).
Trump gained 2% of black men, and lost 2% of black women. He made virtually no gains with black voters.
He gained literally 1% of them. I don’t know where this narrative of trump making massive gains with black people is coming from. All the data suggest at best, a very small gain from 2020 compared to the enormous gains he received with Latinos.
Because it’s easy to lie to the half informed with statistics.
True
Is 2% of black men equal to 2% of black women in raw numbers?
Biden handled Trump’s inflation expertly though. Everyone in 2021 said we would go through a recession, and we got a soft landing instead. And groceries are not 30% more expensive. They are around 15% above 2019 prices, not even that far out from historical inflation rates.
Trump won because of economic gaslighting and you and half the people on the internet still repeat these lies.
It appears that’s what won him the election
There’s hundreds of “what if” imagined scenario’s that would end up with a different result.
People keep claiming this without any context. He said a subset of those who enter illegally are the worst Mexico can throw at us. He never claimed all Latinos. This is hyperbole on repeat, and the left wonders why the right ignores everything they say about Trump.
It’s basically frustration based propaganda at this point. Don’t know if you recognize it.
“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” - Dementia Felon trump
I guess it’s OK what he said because, hey, they aren’t all bad…
Decades of under-education could only lead to shit. But even for a cynical asshole.like me, your country electing the best friend of the most notorious pedo, after he tried to overtake the previous election is quite something.
The culture war means more than that.
Kamala lost because the Dems didn’t show up. Again. Look at the number of votes for 2020 vs 2024. All those “undecided” and “obstainers” that didn’t just stay home. They didn’t bother doing a mail in.
Second highest voter turnout in the US. A difference of only 2,624,285 as per University of Florida estimates so far (the number is likely to go down).
This excuse is getting old.
One, you are assuming people who did not vote would vote dems.
Two, you are pushing blame to the voters who did not show up (and based on the lack of choice it is wild so many showed up)
Three, by pushing that blame on to voters you are almost asking for this to happen again. (By letting the dems keep being crap, pissing off voters, and getting people angry at their neighbours helps the republicans)
First, an explanation isn’t an excuse. It’s a reason. It doesn’t make it okay, it doesn’t place or shift blame, it just correctly points something out.
In this case, Trump broadly received the same number of votes as he did 4 years ago, while the Democrats got millions fewer.
There’s no assumption there, it’s just an observation.
It’s not pushing or assigning blame. Maybe they didn’t vote because they were lazy. Maybe they didn’t vote because they didn’t like Harris. Maybe they didn’t vote because they didn’t like the process by which she became the nominee. Maybe they didn’t vote because they’ve lost faith in the entire system.
Regardless of reason, and regardless of how any observer decides to interpret it or assign blame, the facts speak for themselves.
Your explanation ignores the root cause of the issue. People stayed home because the Democrats and Kamala failed to motivate them to go.
Yes, we are comparing the numbers to the highest voter turn out (which was last election). Biden was able to move 6-7 million more people to vote than Kamala, whereas Trump got about the same as he got in 2020.
Voters have to take some responsibility here. Trump’s base are all being con’d because they are ignorant on how most of the world works beyond their own backyard. Its possible that this is partly true for the 6-7 million people who didn’t vote this election cycle.
The issue isn’t so much that they didn’t vote for Kamala, but rather they did not have the ability to recognize Trump as the con that he is. Me being of average intelligence feels like this should have been easy to decipher.
Biden was able to move 6-7 million more people to vote than Kamala, whereas Trump got about the same as he got in 2020.
Trump got more votes then Kamala, that is how elections work. There was not 6-7 million people not voting (2.6 million delta from 2020), but more people showed up for the orange man and this blaming non-voters is just lame.
Don’t forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn’t fucking vote in 2024
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
It’s also not an accurate number. The official count for Biden in 2020 was about 81.3 million (found many places online, but the official one is a good choice) and the unofficial count for Harris by AP so far is about 74.3 million. That’s about 7 million, which is less than half of what you claimed.
People have got to stop just posting straight up false information. If you don’t know, don’t post.
It would be more appropriate to say outdated. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/11/13/20-million-votes-election-harris-trump-fact-check/76136743007/ As of November 6th 16 million less votes than the year before had been counted.
No, if you said it a week ago it would be outdated. The fact that you’re still saying it is what makes it false. As you point it out new information is available. You’re just using old information still.
By comparison if I wrote a book in the 1600s about the medical necessity of leaching, that would be outdated today. If I wrote a book about the medical necessity of leaching in 2024 that would just be false.
But they still use leeches! Because your hypothetical example is imperfect I’m afraid I’ll have to dismiss everything you said and go with the old, inaccurate numbers. What a shame.
I didn’t write a book or claim to be an authority on the subject. I stated what I remember on a subject I had read an article about 2 weeks ago.
We both know the reasonable way to interpret your post, and the way nearly everybody would interpret it, is that that’s the current or final count. It’s also outdated to say 74 million fewer people voted for Harris, but at one point, that was in fact the count. But it’s more than outdated - it’s misleading to the point of being factually inaccurate to any observer.
I can’t believe instead of being like “oh shit, I made a mistake, my bad, I better think for a second about this in the future” you’re going to try to justify it. Whatever, that’s social media at this point I guess. Surely I’m not the problem, says everybody feeding misinformation in a giant circle. I thought Lemmy might be better, but it’s just not. Thank you for convincing me to finally give all social media up.
Man you’re arguing about something so insignificant.
I didn’t know it was outdated at the time. I don’t constantly check and double things I read in passing to see if it has been updated. I am not a professional in the field.
I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.
Agreed. Despite all the nuances (which are important, too)… Judging by this table, the biggest total blame is on white men, followed by white women and latino men, though there aren’t that many of them. But I feel i need to say this doesn’t have anything to do with ethnicity. You could also make a chart of city vs rural areas or several other factors and you’d probably also find interesting correlations and shifts in opinion.
Latines now make up 20% of the U.S. population, making them the largest minority group. Among the under-18 demographic, that number climbs to nearly 30%. If current population trends hold, Latines are poised to become the largest ethnic group in the country within about 25 years—that’s just three presidential terms away.
While Latines are a minority ethnicity, they are the largest one and the second-fastest growing, trailing only Asians. Asians, despite having one of the lowest birth rates, experience the highest proportional rate of immigration. Notably, Trump gained 12% of the Asian vote in the most recent election, a trend across these growing demographics that, if sustained, could spell significant gains for Republicans in the future.
However, let’s not overlook the broader electoral picture. Black, Asian, and Latine men and women combined make up about 29% of the voting public in presidential elections, while white women alone account for a staggering 37-38%. For context, Latino men represent just 5-6% of voters. White women are, by far, the largest voting demographic.
Interestingly, Trump increased his share of all women by 7% compared to when he ran against Biden and has increased his support from women each time he’s ran. The devastating thing, I think, is that Trump won 13% more of the 18-29-year-olds, 5% more of 30-44-year-olds, and continues to capture “Boomer Lite,” aka Gen X, a majority of whom he has won each time he’s ran, but he increased his share by 9% this time.
Edit: corrected an earlier data error.
Dude where are you getting your data? Trump won white women by 52% in 2016.
If he had lost white women like you posted, he would’ve lost the election.
Hmm. An article quoting Pew: “a majority of white women (53 percent) did vote for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, up from 44 percent in 2020 and 39 percent in 2016 per Pew.”
but I think you’re right, those numbers sound like all women. I’ll edit the post.
With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.
It’s hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.
Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.
Tbh looking for blame beyond Biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee from the start…
As another White Dude for Harris, I concur entirely. It’s definitely an issue with white dudes.
Who’s talking blame?
White people voting for the right is the problem. Like how can we go on here and blame Latinos for shifting when such a high percentage of white people voted for him? Especially when you factor in the population size and not just % left or right.
I am ashamed of my peers.
Yeah, only around 2-3% of the white voters switching Dem would make up for the extra Latinos voting for Trump. On the other hand, blaming the voter instead of candidate is missing the point.
Less white people voted for trump in 24 though. The Latino bit is concerning because Democrats believed they had a demographic inevitability, and that appears to not be the case.
It shouldn’t be concerning, it should be enlightening.
But it won’t be. Not for the party leadership.
Over the past 40 years they’ve gone from being the champion of blue collar and union workers nationwide, and being able to take those votes for granted…to having the rust belt become the biggest swing region in the country (which their opponent swept this month). Did they take this as a wake up call and do more for the blue collar voters to win their loyalty back?
Nah, they just blame them and talk down to them, and tell them they’re too stupid to know what’s best for them.
In that same time frame, they were seen as abandoning the blue collar worker to court the minority vote, talking their efforts at helping factory workers and turning them toward helping minorities in race and gender. While they were actually doing this they did indeed appear to gain that loyalty at the ballot box. Of course once they had it, they felt no need to keep up the good work for these people and have slowly become a party who does nothing for anyone, and runs on a platform of essentially admitting they do nothing, but that their inaction is better than the other side, so they should still be owed votes.
Once again, this isn’t working out for them, and once again, rather than take it as a rejection of what they’re doing, no…it’s the voters who are wrong.
I despise the GOP as much as any reasonable person, and I firmly believe that many of their voters won’t like what they voted for once they start to get it…but there’s no denying that the GOP has a message, goals, and demonstrable progress toward them. And to counter that…the Democrats have…“I think things are good and I wouldn’t change anything. You should vote for me because I’m not MAGA aligned, and if you don’t, it’s your fault not mine.”
Arrogance is off-putting, and it appears it’s going to take at least a half century for the Democrats to figure that out.
It’s really unclear, to me, what these tables are even saying. What’s each column?
Collumn 1 is Percentage that voted for the Winner (Republican 2024/Democrat 2020), Column 2 the Loser, Column 3 is the percentage of the people polled.
So row Latino men: 55% voted for Trump, 43% Voted for Harris, and 6% of the exit poll said they were Latino men.
The first two columns is what percentage each party receive for that particular demographic. The third column is the percentage that demographic made up of the total votes.
So the each rows first two columns should add the 100%. The final column should add to 100%.
White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him
What about all the white women who voted for Trump? Benefitting from structural racism is a helluva drug
… but he’ll make my racist life better, he told me! /s
Whole thread full of people blaming an entire race and sex whether that’s Latinos, Latino men, Whites, or White men. You ask a stupid question and you get stupid answers.
These are national statistics. They bear no direct relation to the outcome.
They do, because no state exists in a vacuum.
43 states and one district didn’t matter this time.
Only seven states mattered.They all affect each other even when the electoral count make them seemingly unimportant.
I don’t see how.
Because whatever happens on the national level affects what happens on the state level.
I think you have it backwards. The national statistics are a result of what happens on the state level in aggregate.
The Dems would have won if they ran a campaign relevant to the struggling and apprehensive. They didn’t. They lost.
Every other Lemmy comment section told me that it was Anti-Genocide college students who cost Kamala the election /s
It’s never any 1 constituency to blame.
But maybe a campaign telling independents and centrists that liberals are doing genocide while not also running on saying, “Republicans will genocide more, however,” was a really bad idea.
I’m not sure you guys bear the moral responsibility for Kamala losing, but I do think there is an argument to make for bearing moral responsibility to helping ensure more death happened.
Fair enough. I’ll admit that my comment was just a snide remark to those in a community that will jump at the first opportunity to deflect blame onto anyone but refuse to entertain a second of introspection.
while not also running on saying, “Republicans will genocide more, however,”
They did.
These constituents are voters who helped deliver Biden the presidency in 2020, and who now feel deeply hurt and betrayed by the President’s decisions to continue funding war crimes and the mass killing of Palestinians. Arab American, Muslim American, and young voters, as well as people of conscience in Michigan and nationwide, are critical to the strength of the base. We cannot afford to have this base permanently disillusioned or alienated in November. The Uncommitted Movement Emphasis mine.
Pro-Palestine kids on campuses were incredibly fearful of a Trump reelection and ran their campaigns to influence the Democratic at least partially out of that fear.
Pro-Palestine knew the Dems were far more likely to win if they promised to fund domestic concerns rather than what has been widely accepted to be a genocide. Feel free to criticize the ratio of anti-Dem:anti-Trump messaging all you like, but it’s afactual to say anti-Trump didn’t happen.
As this chart makes pretty clear, white men are to blame.
you’re getting downvoted as though you are lying. i saw people equivocating the uncommitted movement with pro-Trump on here since February. and now people are turning around and saying “no we didn’t do that that didn’t happen.”
like maybe it wasn’t you but it happened. be fking for real.
Yeah, as much as people on this site love to love to shit on conservatives for being MAGA-brained, most of the Democratic rank-and-file acolytes mirror the same behavior. History will absolve my, and many others’ comments but it’ll be too late to fix problems that could have been avoided. Ultimately, people in general want to be in their echo chambers and have their opinions supported
More than one thing can be true; one things can be a subset of another.
Please be careful whenever you ask these questions. It’s so easy to blame one single minority group for a widespread failure. Of course analysis of individual voting groups is legitimate, as long as you properly frame what you’re doing.
This is a serious issue both because of the connection with racism (i.e., it’s the Latinos’ fault) and abdication of responsibility (i.e., we bear no responsibility).
