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- cross-posted to:
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cannot reveal weather forecasts from a particularly accurate hurricane prediction model to the public that pays for the American government agency – because of a deal with a private insurance risk firm.
The model at issue is called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). In 2023, it was deemed in a National Hurricane Center (NHC) report [PDF] to be one of the two “best performers,” the other being a model called IVCN (Intensity Variable Consensus).
2020 contract between NOAA and RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences, disclosed in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by The Washington Post, requires NOAA to keep HCCA forecasts – which incorporate a proprietary technique from RenaissanceRe – secret for five years.
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Sorry, what a shit, rage bait article is this?
… it was deemed in a National Hurricane Center (NHC) report [PDF] to be one of the two “best performers,” the other being a model called IVCN (Intensity Variable Consensus).
OK, what about IVCN? Is this available? We can assume it is as is not mentioned any more in the article. Also skimming the report it’s not like the other reports are wildly inaccurate/unusable.
Asked whether the NOAA deal affected the release of information about Hurricane Helene, Buchanan said, “HCCA is one of many computer models that forecasters use at the National Hurricane Center. NHC forecasters use a variety of model guidance, observations, and expert knowledge to develop the best and most consistent forecast, along with watches, warnings and other hazard information for use by the emergency management community, the public, and other core partners and decision makers.”
So the outrage is hot air over nothing. Got it.
It seems the outrage is over this part:
the public that pays for the American government agency – because of a deal with a private insurance risk firm.
Which is, on the face of it, outrageous. American public pays for the modelling but isn’t allowed to benefit from it because an insurance company wants to keep the data secret.
They’re confusing us again it doesn’t matter what happened before what matters is what you are doing now.
The US is effectively a corporation. We The People have lost control. The question is what we do about it.
Lol, what? What the fuck? Who are you?
Bullshit. The US is an employee of a corporation of corporations.
Can you explain the difference in terms of the effect on the population?
We’re in direct control of the people with the most money. The government has lost all control. If it were a corporation, it would have control.
We are not in direct control. That’s the disconnect.
Case in point: the US sells arms to Israel. Numerous polls show a lack of support for Israel’s current actions among US citizens, and yet the arms sales continue.
I get that the electoral college is a great excuse for the popular vote not mattering in presidential elections, but what is the excuse when the country has said they don’t want their money going somewhere but it doesn’t stop flowing?
Sorry, that was a typo. I meant we’re not in control. We as a people. Corporations own the government far more than the people.
Oh, yeah. Fair enough. Totally agree.
Can we please stop with the privitization? It’s absolutely not been working out very well for the people.
But it makes so much money for corporations! Tax payer money is used for research and everything else that costs money, then we get a private company to just ‘commercialise’ it! Tax payers take on all the risk and investment, profits go straight to shareholders.
Muwahahahaha!!! - Our corporate overlords, probably
This is actually the opposite of privatization. The government is using private technology that they will be able to make public in 5 years.
they will be able to make public in 5 years.
That’s a bit late for a weather forecast.
It worked in high growth economy 50-70’, and boomers are stuck there.
It really didn’t even work then, those at the time just offloaded the real cost of their policies to the contemporary poor and current entirety of the population.
This feels like propaganda.
A deal penned under the Trump administration because of course it was. Government sold to the highest bidder.
Did you fact check this? +
I was wondering why this felt so gross
This may well cost people their lives
It probably already did last week when 160+ people died in the storm.
People?
Personhood doesn’t begin until $1M. The poor’s aren’t people
They can’t reveal the model itself for 5 years but can obviously give the resulting forecast from it, so I don’t really see the big deal here. It’d be nice if it was freely available, but it’s not like the average person can use it without lots of knowledge and scientific equipment of their own and 5 years isn’t very long.
My guy, it says right there, twice:
…NOAA cannot reveal weather forecasts to the general public…
This fuckin’ guy 🤦
What about every other country on the planet?
Do many of them get hit with hurricanes?
shifting weather in the Sahara desert has also impacted this year’s hurricane season
Sahara desert hit by extraordinary rainfall event that could mess with this year’s hurricane season
They don’t want average joe to get out ahead of the corporations. Could be bad for business!
Lol, is this a joke? Am I on candid Camara? Are you clowns for real?
If true, this is fucked.
It’s not even close to the level bullshit that has gov’t funding drug research, and then getting gouged by drug companies. That doesn’t make it right. I hate this on principle, but on a pragmatic level I doubt the difference from the many current models is noticeable other than on a trivial statistical level. That said, it does really piss me off as a matter of principle.
