Trade and finance are different flows with overlapping but different stacks. Also, the fact that China is competing doesn’t mean the US is defeated. The US is making moves to create new dependencies and rewrite their monetary and financial systems in ways that they’re betting will suck more capital into the dollar and push it into wider use again. There’s competition now, but the US still has incredible power.
I agree, but I’d argue that material production is what matters at the end of the day, and here China is absolutely dominating. The power of the US now largely lies in media, and ephemeral stuff like technology platforms. Manufacturing is actually shrinking, and the tariff war only accelerated the process because the costs of inputs for US manufacturers went up.
The US is now trying to use its remaining military power to destroy countries aligned with BRICS, and to do land grabs like Greenland. But I really think these are just final gasps of a dying empire. The US military can’t even produce many essentials like artillery shells at scale now, and they rely on Chinese components for any advanced manufacturing. Rare earths are prime example of a critical supply chain that China has a monopoly on. Once the US runs through existing stocks, it’s not really clear how they will replace them. And without the ability to project military strength globally, the US will continue to lose grip on its hegemony.
And things aren’t looking so hot domestically for the US either. It’s basically teetering on a brink of a civil war right now. And if there is an economic crash, which is a likely scenario in the near future, that could act as a catalyst for a USSR style collapse.
This is exactly what I’d say is an example of underestimating the US. Dismissing the importance of capital markets, financial infrastructure, and software tech, while underplaying advantage in intelligence networks and military. Yes, China dominates in manufacturing and trade, and those are important, but it doesn’t eliminate the power the US has on other fronts. It’s an intense competition, and it’s possible that the US empire doesn’t come out on top. The issues you raise around manufacturing, REEs, domestic unrest are real, but they are far from settling the competition. The US is still in the lead position by far in terms of global power projection, and they are utterly ruthless. They will burn the world down if needed to rule over the ashes, and they will exploit every advantage they have over allies and adversaries alike.
Personally, I hope to see them lose their grip and to have a more balanced global system emerge, but their power is real and a collapse may be hopeful speculation but is not by any means an odds on bet at this point. It’s far from settled.
China also dominates in most technologies at this point, and in science. The US still has some power, but the reality is that it is a fading empire now. The whole retrenchment strategy is a clear admission of that. The US is no longer able to play the role of the global hegemon, and it’s now focusing on getting whatever resources it can out of Europe, and trying to consolidate control over western hemisphere.
I don’t see how the US is in the lead position in terms of global power projection. They lost their proxy war in Ukraine, which has been incredibly costly for them. They were unable to take on Yemen, and had to quietly pull back. They pulled a stunt in Venezuela, but didn’t actually manage to accomplish regime change, and did not put boots on the ground. Now they might try to start a war with Iran, and if they do that will go badly for them if they actually go through with it.
On the economic front, the US lost their trade war with China, and now countries are flocking to China seeing it as a stable alternative. The industry in the US is collapsing with each set of numbers being worse than the last. Things are so bad now that Trump admin is rushing head over hills to shut down reporting of the numbers on the economy.
I would argue that the collapse is in fact settled because it’s the material reality that matters in the end. The ephemeral things the US produces like entertainment, service industry, tech platforms, and so on, are not essential things people need to live. And they only have value when basic needs are met. At the end of the day, eople need to eat, they need goods for their every day lives, food, housing, jobs, healthcare, and retirement. The US is increasingly unable to provide these things for their population. It is no longer self sufficient in many critical areas, and it’s reliant on China to sustain basic economy. That’s precisely why the US was forced to pull back from their trade war.
It’s possible, of course, that the US starts a nuclear holocaust, but my bet is that the oligarchs will choose to rule over a diminished empire rather than live out the rest of their lives in bunkers like rats.
Trade and finance are different flows with overlapping but different stacks. Also, the fact that China is competing doesn’t mean the US is defeated. The US is making moves to create new dependencies and rewrite their monetary and financial systems in ways that they’re betting will suck more capital into the dollar and push it into wider use again. There’s competition now, but the US still has incredible power.
I agree, but I’d argue that material production is what matters at the end of the day, and here China is absolutely dominating. The power of the US now largely lies in media, and ephemeral stuff like technology platforms. Manufacturing is actually shrinking, and the tariff war only accelerated the process because the costs of inputs for US manufacturers went up.
The US is now trying to use its remaining military power to destroy countries aligned with BRICS, and to do land grabs like Greenland. But I really think these are just final gasps of a dying empire. The US military can’t even produce many essentials like artillery shells at scale now, and they rely on Chinese components for any advanced manufacturing. Rare earths are prime example of a critical supply chain that China has a monopoly on. Once the US runs through existing stocks, it’s not really clear how they will replace them. And without the ability to project military strength globally, the US will continue to lose grip on its hegemony.
And things aren’t looking so hot domestically for the US either. It’s basically teetering on a brink of a civil war right now. And if there is an economic crash, which is a likely scenario in the near future, that could act as a catalyst for a USSR style collapse.
This is exactly what I’d say is an example of underestimating the US. Dismissing the importance of capital markets, financial infrastructure, and software tech, while underplaying advantage in intelligence networks and military. Yes, China dominates in manufacturing and trade, and those are important, but it doesn’t eliminate the power the US has on other fronts. It’s an intense competition, and it’s possible that the US empire doesn’t come out on top. The issues you raise around manufacturing, REEs, domestic unrest are real, but they are far from settling the competition. The US is still in the lead position by far in terms of global power projection, and they are utterly ruthless. They will burn the world down if needed to rule over the ashes, and they will exploit every advantage they have over allies and adversaries alike.
Personally, I hope to see them lose their grip and to have a more balanced global system emerge, but their power is real and a collapse may be hopeful speculation but is not by any means an odds on bet at this point. It’s far from settled.
China also dominates in most technologies at this point, and in science. The US still has some power, but the reality is that it is a fading empire now. The whole retrenchment strategy is a clear admission of that. The US is no longer able to play the role of the global hegemon, and it’s now focusing on getting whatever resources it can out of Europe, and trying to consolidate control over western hemisphere.
I don’t see how the US is in the lead position in terms of global power projection. They lost their proxy war in Ukraine, which has been incredibly costly for them. They were unable to take on Yemen, and had to quietly pull back. They pulled a stunt in Venezuela, but didn’t actually manage to accomplish regime change, and did not put boots on the ground. Now they might try to start a war with Iran, and if they do that will go badly for them if they actually go through with it.
On the economic front, the US lost their trade war with China, and now countries are flocking to China seeing it as a stable alternative. The industry in the US is collapsing with each set of numbers being worse than the last. Things are so bad now that Trump admin is rushing head over hills to shut down reporting of the numbers on the economy.
I would argue that the collapse is in fact settled because it’s the material reality that matters in the end. The ephemeral things the US produces like entertainment, service industry, tech platforms, and so on, are not essential things people need to live. And they only have value when basic needs are met. At the end of the day, eople need to eat, they need goods for their every day lives, food, housing, jobs, healthcare, and retirement. The US is increasingly unable to provide these things for their population. It is no longer self sufficient in many critical areas, and it’s reliant on China to sustain basic economy. That’s precisely why the US was forced to pull back from their trade war.
It’s possible, of course, that the US starts a nuclear holocaust, but my bet is that the oligarchs will choose to rule over a diminished empire rather than live out the rest of their lives in bunkers like rats.