“Whether or not they ever be put into place, the damage is done,” said Greig Mordue, a former auto industry executive and associate professor at the W. Booth School of Engineering Practice and Technology at McMaster University.
He says Trump’s threats have already changed the landscape. Whether he goes ahead with the tariffs or not, or whether he carves out specific exemptions, the threat alone will drive investment out of Canada and into the U.S.
“For at least the next four years, there will be no serious investment in the Canadian automotive industry,” said Mordue.
I know you were using hyperbole with 100 years of R&D and progress so for fun I wanted to know how old the modern car is and wikipedia said: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile#%3A~%3Atext=Benz+was+granted+a+patent%2Cwas+capable+of+extended+travel. 1886.
So like, 139 years of automotive history and being 100 years behind would really suck lol.
In all seriousness, you raise very real points and links to globalisation and Pierre Trudeau’s analogy of sleeping with an elephant has never been more real. I’m not gonna lie, I’m worried.
I’m worried too. I was born and raised in SW Ontario, so most of my family and friends work in some sort of auto manufacturing or automotive-related industry. It’s already been pretty bad the past decade or so, this will likely be the death knell if it grows legs.
Fun fact, did you know that there was actually even electric cars made in the late 1800s? Some even in Canada. Car companies in this era all eventually failed though, or merged into other companies. There wasn’t ever really any production volumes in auto until Oldsmobile and Ford came onto the scene, especially with the latter who established the golden standard of auto production lines.
Yeah, but we have history and old blueprints and universities full of people who know how to make good cars. And an existing advanced auto industry (just integrated with the US). OP was just guessing at a lot of things, and missed the mark quite a bit.
I wasn’t guessing. I cut my teeth in automotive. I have an education in automotive engineering, amongst other things, and I have extensive working experience at both the retailer, and Tier 1 and 2 manufacturing experience earlier in my career. Not proclaiming to be the end all be all, or the smartest person in the world, or that I know much of anything, but I’m also far from being the village idiot on this topic.
It ain’t happening bud, I’m sorry. There’s not enough marketplace to recover the costs, it would be complicated to transport finished goods to other markets, especially considering that most of the manufacturing facilities are located in southern Ontario. Which means you’d have to pretty much stick everything on a ship, and that adds costs, versus trucking to the states. It obviously can be done, easily enough, but it cuts into margins at higher production levels. Margins aren’t high in this industry, and the labour is mostly unionized, or very quickly will be if it’s not, and that adds a dearth of costs. Volatility in commodities pricing alone would be enough to knock something like this into non-profitable territory. It likely wouldn’t be profitable for a decade either. Even look at something like Tesla, it took them 17 years to turn a profit, and it actually doesn’t really turn a profit from its cars, it’s actually from the sale of environmental credits.
If you are going to see any automotive investment and new OEMs, something like a new Tesla or whatever, it’s almost certainly going to be in Europe, not North America. Donald Trump has all but guaranteed that there’s not going to be one dime spent in deepening or expanding automotive manufacturing capabilities spent here, for quite a while, likely a decade or more if he keeps it up. Canada has learned its lesson here, and I would imagine if anything happens in the automotive sector, it’ll be a contraction, not an expansion. Even as close as four of five months ago, there have been new plans launched for factory expansion and construction of tier 1 suppliers in Southwestern Ontario, but I would bet you that’ll be off now. We’ll have to wait and see though, only those closest to the projects will know, and nobody else’s crystal ball can predict the future.
And let’s not even begin to consider that China is foaming at the mouth to dump mostly state backed, very viable electric cars here, for a fraction of the price tag that we’ve been paying. We aren’t going to be able to block that off forever, they’ll find a way around the tariffs eventually. How are you going to compete with that?
I’m sorry then. What I read there is that Canada doesn’t already have an auto industry, and if that had been what you meant, that could only be a guess.
I’ll respond to the rest on the thread with just you.