• 16 Posts
  • 81 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

help-circle


  • The original source: https://www.oag.com/blog/canada-us-airline-capacity-aviation-market

    Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we’ve compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.

    It’s also important to note that this is more than just leisure travel between Canada and the US itself.

    I don’t necessarily think these are the main driving factors, but you could attribute some part of this to:

    1. economic recession, because firms oftentimes cut back on travel in their budgets as the first line items to be cut (prior to layoffs), and businesses may be more reluctant to hold conferences and large meetings in-person during periods of economic stress, and fewer business negotiations/meetings are happening due to tariff anxieties.
    2. declining air traffic to the US overall because of visa worries, the proposed travel bans or spite - Air Canada + airline alliances competes with US airlines for passenger bookings (i.e. itineraries like London -> Toronto -> Kansas compete with equivalent US itineraries of London -> New York -> Kansas ), and visa policies like the China Transit Program exists to help Air Canada and the Star Alliance leverage Canadian airports as transit hubs to the US. Remember: if privileged Canadians are scared about being allowed entry to the US without being detained in an ICE holding facility, you imagine how citizens of developing countries must feel about traveling to the US right now.

    The trend only holds true until September according to the source, so general uncertainty definitely seems to be a key driver here.












  • This narrative is clearly designed to deflect blame for price hikes onto the Canadian government, much like how Tim Hortons and restaurants point fingers at provincial governments whenever minimum wage goes up.

    Yes, the Canadian government implemented retaliatory tariffs, but let’s not forget that Loblaws consciously chose to stick with those specific suppliers. They have the power to decide what products line their shelves. As consumers, we should actively support stores that have made the effort to switch to non-American suppliers. It’s disingenuous to suggest that there are no alternative countries exporting similar goods like canned soup, deli meat, and fruit juice. They made a conscious choice to buy American - let those clowns watch their inventory rot.



  • When you have a large common market, there’s less need to look elsewhere for substitute goods. It’s a strong point for the market.

    CETA is a great move, but let’s face it—many goods just aren’t worth the transportation costs when you have plenty of alternatives within the common market. So, it makes sense that the EU has a trade surplus with us, so good on them. :)





  • This has been the playbook from day one—Trump throws out an outrageous statement, his lackeys rush to ‘clarify’, ‘negotiate’ or downplay it, and then, surprise, he meant exactly what he said.

    The real problem is the constant gaslighting: pretending he’s just posturing when, in reality, he’s dead set on pushing his reckless, authoritarian agenda. At this point, anyone still treating him like a rational actor is either delusional or complicit. No rational actor would casually equate ethnic cleansing to a real estate transaction, or try and take over a sovereign state as though it was a ruthless corporate takeover.

    There is no future in negotiating with the US - the only way out of this mess is to do what we should’ve been doing for the past 30 years - diversify our supply chains, build resilient trading relationships and establish the infrastructure to insulate ourselves from the whims of volatile US policymakers - even if that means cozying up to global partners with historical animosity.



  • Canadian tariffs are targeted in a number of ways. One of the ways is targeting American goods that have Canadian alternatives. So the goal is to make American products less attractive by making them more expensive, damaging the US economy while bolstering our own.

    I feel like it’s often missed that it isn’t a binary Buy US/Buy Canada dilemma. Most goods have substitutes - there are other countries that can produce most consumer goods. It’s only when you start getting into high-value-added goods like turbines, flash memory, missiles and planes that there’s difficulties in import substitution. A 25% retaliatory tariff doesn’t mean your canned tomatoes are definitely going up by 25%, but you’ll likely start seeing Mexican, Peruvian, etc. canned tomatoes on Canadian shelves that weren’t there before.

    And while patriotism is great and all, buying goods from other countries that we don’t have strong established trading ties with is a good way to make the case for closer bilateral cooperation and even future free trade agreements that exceed most-favoured nation benefits conferred by the WTO. When countries start building export-driven industries that give dignity and economic self-sufficiency for their citizens, that’s a future tiger worthy of negotiating a free trade agreement with.


  • PixeltoCanadaGroup photo at the European (w/ Canada) summit
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    16
    arrow-down
    9
    ·
    edit-2
    2 months ago

    I’m doubtful full membership will ever happen, and even an EEA Norway-style agreement where we adopt 75% of the EU’s laws without representation but keep our fishing and agricultural policies (pre-requisites for the Atlantic and Prairie Provinces to agree), would take decades to be negotiated, signed and ratified with all the dysfunctional, proportional representational governments in Europe right now.

    There’s been discussions about “associate membership” in the EU to bypass the European-ness requirement, but I don’t think that’s gotten any traction.

    I would be grateful for any kind of free movement agreement that gains traction right now, even with CARICOM or MERCOSUR.















Moderates