Google seems to be putting a lot of resources into their new Fuchsia OS, which though open source, is still completely managed by Google. It also has the drawback of not being under copyleft licenses like GPL, which means other companies can just take it and make proprietary forks.
People who have followed the Fuchsia project, do you see it eventually becoming a significant enough competitor to Linux to be a threat to it, and therefore giving Google even more control of the software world?
No, I think we’re seeing things like Nextcloud (Germany) and Deepin (China) pop up in other countries as nations realize the USA is a sketchy imperial power. GPL is becoming a strategic choice to ensure sustainability.
Europe and China are looking at RISC-v for example to eliminate the issue of licensing sanctions by the USA.
Fuchsia could become popular but I doubt it will overtake Linux when the reason Linux is popular is because of the GPL license. Also, the man hours of volunteer work that went/go into Linux would not be matched by Google, or Google competitors. Would Apple or Microsoft really spend time helping Google Fuchsia? I could be wrong but I think Linux is safe for another few decades.
I’m more worried about MIT licensed independent vendor neutral projects like Redox OS that could get strong community followings while people don’t realize the implications of using non-copyleft licensing for their works.
Google doesn’t need apple or Microsoft to support it or volunteers to support it though. They have billions of dollars to throw into this project just like apple does with macos and microsoft with windows. They can get by without volunteers and they will do what they can to get people to use their OS instead of truly free ones.
You’re right, but most platform models are based on free or cheap labour that is then aggregated by the platform owner. Google would have to really sell Fuchsia as superior to Linux to get all of the developers onside without them being suspicious of Google’s motives - especially when there is already an incredibly large FOSS community that supports/enjoys Linux.
I find developers to be more critical thinking about technology they support/invest time in compared to business executives that don’t understand technology.
That being said I’m not saying ignore it, I’ll speak up for Linux when Fuchsia becomes more mature and they try to build an ecosystem on it, and I definitely try to only purchase/donate to services that offer linux versions, since I primarily use Linux.
Isnt fushcia going to mainly be a android replacement?
Oh yes you are probably right. But then it’s even less likely IMO. Tizen, HarmonyOS, and others are already starting development because of the fear of US political sanctions, I’d argue that ship (of a unified american-led global mobile OS) has already sailed for a generation if not permanently.
But those won’t be used in the US? Whatever replaces android will be mainstream because people who think about operating systems (most people) who buy a phone other than iphone will have this new OS
I’m just speculating but; Google’s ecosystem could go the same route as Apple in that it could become relatively attached to Google products. There’s a good chance I’ll be wrong about this but I see an increased push to interoperability and tech standards neutrality because of US imperialism (RISCV instead of AMD, etc.) In the USA you could see Apple, Google, Tizen, some linux variant (like PinePhone/Lineage), and others pop up. This would be less efficient and well, stupid. But look what happened with Netflix, Disney, HBO, etc. - we had one streaming service that had all of the shows for $8 a month, now we have 5 or 6 platforms that all charge various amounts. If having a mobile platform and a mobile app store means increased profit we’ll see competition in this space. Now that we’re entering the next generation of mobile OS there will be companies that will try to take advantage. Amazon failed on their first mobile OS but after it licks its wounds why won’t they try again and tie it somehow to Amazon Prime membership? Just speculation on my part - it’s a really inefficient thing to have multiple mobile OS’s that do essentially the same thing.
But, if it is the case that Google switches to Fuchsia, it’s not GPL, and they make a push for adoption, guaranteed there will be people like you and I buying an alternate GPL-based OS to keep the free software movement alive. If anything I think that would accelerate adoption of alternatives; sort of how Facebook buying Whatsapp led to rapid adoption of Telegram.
Sorry for necrobumping this, but perhaps after two years we can in fact see where this is going. While 9to5Google claims Google is going full speed ahead with the os, Ars Technica reports that Fuchsia was hit among the hardest during all the tech lay-offs at the start of this year, losing 16% of its workforce, while Google averaged 6%. Perhaps that means there’s hope.
It seems unlikely that any os, even by Google, would be able to pose a serious threat to Linux’ current over 99% server dominance. However, it could be a threat to the FOSS community were it to replace the Android kernel. Google has been moving functionality from Android to Google Play for quite some time already. If they continue this, Android will eventually end up being only a Linux kernel, which can than be replaced by the Fuchsia kernel with a mandatory update to all phones with Google Play. No end-user would be impacted by this, since all the apps would simply move over too.
This would however be problematic for /e/, GrapheneOS, CalyxOS and the like. They would be left behind with AOSP, and no apps except the ones found in F-Droid. That means no banking apps, no mandatory government apps (think Corona) and nothing else that is only provided by official institutes and corporations. In fact, they would be worse off than people using Ubuntu Touch/PostmarketOS et al. now, because using Waydroid they can still use many apps from the Play Store.
