I think Flatpak is already good enough to be useful, and improving fast enough that it might be viable as the default way to distribute graphical apps for the majority of distros in the nearish future. I personally still prefer native apps, but I recognize those inherently involve massive duplication of effort, and that effort could be much better used in other places. If we’re going to move to a universal packaging format, then for me personally Flatpak seems like the clear winner already, and that gulf is only widening. I just hope it doesn’t stay so centralized around Flathub.