Treasury and dollar moves the last week are a tide showing the US is losing. Trump, the way he is, is sure to ask for too much, or settle for “show announcements”, but world may understand that they collectively have more pressure on him, especially with China eager to be friends.
The USA was already a sinking ship, I think, Fart Man just decided to speed the process up a bit.
I see the tide as being more about two egos splashing in a pool.
Yes, the US economy is very unstable, but the Chinese and American economies are intertwined and interdependent. The current conflict in a not a zero-sum cads game - both will lose. Trump is a petulant child, but the Chinese are driven by a need to be seen as stronger and smarter (face is very important to Xi.) The Chinese have opportunity to rewire their trade, but it is not something that changes over night. They have a lot of prejudice to get past - and other economies are concerned about the impact of depending on the Chinese.
The US economy is utterly irrelevant to China as per BBC:
Before the tariff war kicked in, China did have a massive volume of sales to the US but, to put it into context, this only amounted to 2% of its GDP.
egos
Trump keeps saying China should call and that they will make a deal is more submissive afaik. Though I haven’t seen Chinese press conferences. Foreign minister is quoted with response including “joke” insult. Trump did back down to EU a bit “their retaliation tariffs didn’t become active yet” (China’s hadn’t yet either). He specifically sited large volume of Chinese exports in the week to rest of world in US backing down to world. Lobbying is likely to result in US backing off Chinese tariffs soon, with reciprocality on amount lowering.
The Chinese have opportunity to rewire their trade, but it is not something that changes over night.
Cars are extremely hard to rewire trade with. Sales/maintenance dealers/supply chains that integrate back home. Same for heavy industry equipment. Dealers/sales/repair training. Electronics, clothing, toys exports don’t have that problem (US is only 12% of Chinese exports. Can increase elsewhere). Importing FFs, agriculture is easy switch. Getting EU/JPN/SK to sell planes, heavy equipment to China is worth it if US competition is blacklisted. Microsoft/Adobe have open source alternatives that do require some switching/retraining, but MSFT afaik was mostly selling to US companies in China for “national security reasons”, with CCP advising domestic companies to avoid for same reasons for last few years. US import dependence on China is significantly higher than reverse. China airlines already have mixed boeing/airbus fleets.
I was wondering about support/repair from Chinese cars, as I started seeing BYD ads around.
You’re not in North America. BYD has put plants and sales offices/dealers in Europe and elsewhere in the world. EVs tend to need parts replacements instead of repair, but that still means manufacturer support services/infrastructure.
Most of this tariff business is about economics but I feel like that’s just not true with China. There’s too many people saying there’s going to be a real war break out in 2027 or 2028 and that American firms need to decouple from China. It might just be that the US government needs to give them a hard push to make that happen. Being dependent on China during the opening days of war would be devastating for many US firms.
There’s too many people saying there’s going to be a real war break out in 2027 or 2028 and that American firms need to decouple from China.
Very high risk of war when trade breaks down. As in 1930s. Israel/Philippines annihilation, Panama, Columbia could all be on the table. Korea reunification under best Korea. Taiwan just needs to be blockaded from flights east. Japan needs to be careful too. All of Asia have natural alliance opportunities, but US corruption forces are strong, even when Trump threatens to abandon all allies.
War can be avoided with similar independence/respect to today. But greater subservience to US is the danger, no matter how illogical it is for rulerships to choose that path.
All that said, the people of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, and others are anxiously seeking a sign from the US that our military will come to their aid when attacked. Even Vietnam wishes to use the US to balance Chinese power in the east. When China has so many fearful neighbors, that’s a sign there’s a serious problem with China.
When China has so many fearful neighbors, that’s a sign there’s a serious problem with China.
Or jus a sign of massive US empire extortion/bribery. US funds terrorism all across the belt and road initiative. US navy can be easily wiped out. Just because media/political consumers are stupid, doesn’t mean rulers are.
It’s not an at American influence, come on now.
You have The Chinese telling all of their neighbors in the S.C. sea that they own it, trying push the Philippines back, trying to push the Vietnamese back.
Also, the US Navy is no joke, don’t play. The Chinese armed forces could likely beat the US Asian fleet, but it would be costly - nowhere nearly “easy”. Primarily the Chinese advantage is volume of material and simpler supply lines. The tech is near equal, with the Chinese being on newer airframes, but the Americans having significantly more proven tech and procedures, especially in the Navy. Taking on the Amer cans would not be like using water cannons on the Philippines boats, or hatchets in the Himilayas.
nowhere nearly “easy”
nuclear strikes on a carrier fleet are an easy way to sink them. No civilian casualties. War doesn’t have to be a fuck around process.
You have The Chinese telling all of their neighbors in the S.C. sea that they own it, trying push the Philippines back, trying to push the Vietnamese back.
There’s room for compromise on a greater cooperation agreement, especially with Vietnam. Philippines deserve destruction or overthrow of their corrupt US puppet.
Only a feeble-minded person could believe that anyone could confidently use nuclear weapons against the United States and not face equal retaliation. The people would demand it.
Interesting theory that people would demand doomsday for some ships getting sunk. That people cannot accept the end of their empire’s military projection. The US should then preemptively use nukes, with popular support, in any war they will fail in. Guarantee you that there will be no referendum on retaliation, only the usual media militantism and tyranny.
The MAD doctrine only gets invoked at the sight of several incoming missiles on territory. It is your response to navy being sunk that causes MAD.
https://lemmy.ml/post/28363049 has better details on how weak US is compared to China. Just a bit long.
