How do scientists predict the future climate? Do they just calculate the current trends of temperature growth and take the causes of it into account? Or is there some other way. Is it basically some model y = a1*x1 + a2*x2 + … or something more complex?
y = a1x1 + a2x2 + …
Just a quick markdown tip: If you want the asterisks to show up, you need to escape them with backslashes, otherwise they are rendered as italics.
y = a1\*x1 + a2\*x2 + …
Renders as:
y = a1*x1 + a2*x2 + …
Thx, fixed.
It is very complex. There are equations involved, but more indirectly in the form of climate models. Here’s an explanation of how modeling works. Look at it all, but your question is sort of directed to the part about inputs and outputs of a model, and what goes on within the black box. You can imagine how changing even just one certain trend to get an estimate will generate a remarkably different picture over time.
Thanks. The article in the link explains a lot
“Do they just calculate the current trends of temperature growth and take the causes of it into account”
yep, held against historical data for context.
“Is it basically some model y = a1x1 + a2x2 + … or something more complex”
The more complex algorithms are for predicting and imminent weather patterns. “climate” itself, like ice age trends, global warming and future projections are based on data analysis and extrapolation.
