The most likely scenario is something similar to the post Soviet style collapse that followed USSR.

Gorbachev Introduced glasnost and perestroika to reform the Soviet system that inadvertently eroded the ideological and institutional foundations of the USSR, accelerating its collapse. Today, Trump is pursuing a similar, if ideologically inverted, disruption of the US institutions. Attacking the deep state, undermining trust in media and elections, and prioritizing loyalty over expertise. He’s enacting a purge of the permanent bureaucracy under the guise of draining the swamp, feeding off polarization and institutional distrust. These policies are eroding the foundation of the system paving the way to its collapse.

Soviet collapse followed as a result of a shock therapy with sudden price liberalization, fiscal austerity, and privatization that led to hyperinflation, economic instability, and the rise of an oligarchic class. Similarly, Trump is busy slashing regulations and cutting corporate taxes, fuelling short-term growth that deepens wealth inequality and corporate consolidation. Like Gorbachev, he’s ushering in a polarized economic landscape where faith in the system is rapidly dwindling among the public.

The decline in living standards is amplifying nationalism, in form of MAGA, and deepening cultural and regional divides in the US. Trump’s whole rhetoric is rooted in divisive politics. Just as Soviet republics turned inward post-glasnost, prioritizing local grievances over collective unity, so are states like Texas, Florida, and California are increasingly talking about breaking with the union. People like Musk are well positioned to target the remaining public services and industries for privatization.

The USSR collapsed abruptly, while the US might face a slower erosion of its institutional norms. The big difference here is that the Soviet Union was structurally more resilient to societal collapse compared to the United States.

USSR had a lot of redundancy in critical infrastructure such as public transit, people owned their homes, and food production was largely localized. This allowed communities to survive during systemic failures. Another big factor is that Soviet society emphasized collective welfare over individualism, fostering mutual aid networks and state-provided essentials like healthcare and education, which could buffer against collapse.

The US relies on fragile, privatized systems with just-in-time supply chains, and largely deregulated utilities. We already saw how this system buckled under the stress of the pandemic, and routinely fails to deal with natural disasters like the LA fires. America’s dependency on globalized trade coupled with hyper-individualism and lack of contingency planning, makes it prone to chaos in a collapse scenario. The profit efficiency driven model risks catastrophic failure under pressure.