“Whether or not they ever be put into place, the damage is done,” said Greig Mordue, a former auto industry executive and associate professor at the W. Booth School of Engineering Practice and Technology at McMaster University.
He says Trump’s threats have already changed the landscape. Whether he goes ahead with the tariffs or not, or whether he carves out specific exemptions, the threat alone will drive investment out of Canada and into the U.S.
“For at least the next four years, there will be no serious investment in the Canadian automotive industry,” said Mordue.
Yes, in the long term it might make more sense to just let Europe, South Korea and Japan take the lead. Or a poor country - hopefully a democratic one; I trust China only slightly more than the US right now.
The reason intervention would make sense is just to make the transition tolerably gradual. Right now we’re talking about production lines and parts companies just sitting and rotting for (sudden, artificial) lack of customers, while Canadian consumers have trouble buying new cars at the same time.