A war would be disastrous for both countries. Especially the US.
As President Donald Trump relentlessly threatens to annex Canada, some Canadians are worried that an American invasion could one day become a reality.
How would that scenario play out? Looking at the sheer size of the American military, many people might believe that Trump would enjoy an easy victory.
That analysis is wrong. If Trump ever decides to use military force to annex Canada, the result would not be determined by a conventional military confrontation between the Canadian and American armies. Rather, a military invasion of Canada would trigger a decades-long violent resistance, which would ultimately destroy the United States.
But in this nightmare scenario, could Canadians successfully resist an American invasion? Absolutely. I know this because I have studied insurgencies around the world for more than two decades, and I have spent time with ordinary people who have fought against powerful invading armies.
Here’s the thing. How well did America do in its first guerilla war, Vietnam? How well did it do in its last guerilla war, Afghanistan? How well do you think it would do if those guerilla soldiers looked pretty much like them, talked pretty much like them, and had a similar culture? Why are you banking on better? Was it the longer supply lines that lost the two wars I mentioned? Was it the lack of troops on the ground? Because those are the only two advantages America would have in a war with Canada as opposed to the other two I mentioned.
There is no way Canada’s military can stand against America’s, you’re absolutely right. If America decides to, they will invade Canada. That by no means guarantees a peaceful or successful occupation. And Canada’s military leaders aren’t idiots. I doubt they’d even meet America’s military in the field. But I bet you’d see a whole bunch of freedom fighters who used to have uniforms in their closets.
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