In every swing state, Trump has either closed the gap if he was behind, or broadened the lead if he was ahead.
I’m not saying it’s over, or that there can’t be surprises, but it looks like the Democrats have failed to run a campaign that the American public found compelling.
Saying the public is stupid or racist or whatever doesn’t cover it. The bottom line is the Democrats haven’t put forth a plan or made a case that they can deal quickly with the problems in America.
They have made announcements about student loan plans and forgiveness that were blocked, making them look unorganized and ineffective. They lost abortion rights. They never make progress on healthcare or taxes on the wealthy.
I want to win. I think we should fight surer battles, and avoid battles that will lose. Blaming Republicans for stopping us just makes them seem stronger than us. Let’s stop making excuses and go on the offensive. No more, “Well don’t vote for HIM, he’s so dumb!”
It’s hasn’t worked.
This is inaccurate.
VoteHub still is projecting a Harris win, https://polls.votehub.com/
They’re not the only ones, see also https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1
As for votes not mattering - exchange third party voters in swing states and offer a vote swap. Multiple safe state voters can swap with a single swing state voter, leading to a win for the third party (more votes so closer to 5% of nationwide popular vote that’d get them federal funding) and for Dems as well (more Harris votes in swing states).
Longer term, there’s a plan afoot to fix this, https://www.vox.com/2020/1/14/21063591/modest-proposal-to-save-american-democracy-pack-the-union-harvard-law-review
Once that goes through we can do things like ranked choice voting and such as well as a direct nationwide popular vote for the Presidential election, which should solve this for good - and prevent the Dems from needing to cater to the most centralist voter - or moderate Republicans - to win.
Have hope!
Good reads! The Vote Hub one still seems to sho an Electoral college win for Trump, but the VANTAGE HOUSE article was very exciting and made a lot of sense.
Of course, if he loses Trump will yell steal because of the polls, but hopefully he’ll have plenty of time to think about it.
In jail!
Ahh shoot that VoteHub change must have been a recent update, I see the same now.
However, still reason to be optimistic in the short term from not only Vantage House but also Harris’s own campaign team as per https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/us/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-election.html (edit: archive https://archive.is/EwIkC ), and that’s not even counting the long term plan.