Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate—or maybe they’re trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.
I’m not worried about that. They’ll have an even harder time rigging things in 2024 than in 2020. First, their prior strategy was completely cut off thanks to new federal legislation. Second, don’t underestimate the effect of Biden currently sitting in the White House. Most of the stuff Trump tried to pull in 2020 was only possible because he was sitting in the Oval Office. For example, the capital building was largely unguarded precisely because Trump refused requests for troops and additional security. This time, the capital building will be a fortress surrounded by thousands of soldiers armed to the teeth. If any MAGA asshats try to storm the capital again this time, they won’t have to worry about prosecution. They will simply not be leaving there alive.
People like to doom post about the Supreme Court, but in all practical reality, there is only so much they can do. Yes, if there is actually a legitimate question in an extremely close election, they can put their thumb on the scale and put their guy in power. That’s what happened in 2000. In 2000, things were razor-close, and there were some legitimate open questions about how to count ballots, questions of such triviality that no one had bothered litigating them before. And because Florida was within a few hundred votes, and because the Electoral College was basically tied, that distinction mattered.
But that really is the limit of how far the Supreme Court can go in putting their thumb on the scale. People like to Doompost and handwring about how, “omg, SCOTUS is just going to rule that Trump wins, even if he loses in a landslide.” I call bullshit on that. There is a word for that kind of comically farcical ruling - a coup by another name. If the court issues a ruling that just says, “lol, fuck democracy, our guy wins”…well we’ve abandoned all pretense at that point. And at that point, Biden can simply get up there and say, “the justices have completely abandoned democracy and have attempted to stage a coup from the bench. They are engaged in treason against the United States, and I have had them arrested, and they will be tried by military tribunal for their crimes against the Republic.”
I’m sorry, but people do not fuck around when it comes to presidential elections. A coup from the bench is as treasonous an act as storming the capital. Again, they do have some wiggle room. If the election is essentially a tossup, down to a few hundred votes in a single state? Sure, then they can choose a winner. But if it would require a comically biased, utterly farcical ruling? Well at that point what matters is who is currently holding the guns. And that will be the military led by Joe Biden. If they attempt a coup from the bench, they can be charged with treason, hauled in front of a military tribunal, and be dealt with quite quickly.
They realize that this is actually a possibility if they were to attempt a judicial coup. And they would much prefer their current cushy jobs to playing with that kind of fire. Again, if it’s close, they can put their thumb on the scale. But as a practical reality, SCOTUS can’t just completely overturn the results on an unambiguous election without gambling with their very lives. Nations do not fuck around when it comes to this kind of question of transfer of power.
I think what you’re saying is a reasonable take. I’m just not sure that’s how unreasonable people see the situation and that’s what we’re dealing with. So much of this is uncharted territory that I don’t think we can rely on how things should play out.
I’m not worried about that. They’ll have an even harder time rigging things in 2024 than in 2020. First, their prior strategy was completely cut off thanks to new federal legislation. Second, don’t underestimate the effect of Biden currently sitting in the White House. Most of the stuff Trump tried to pull in 2020 was only possible because he was sitting in the Oval Office. For example, the capital building was largely unguarded precisely because Trump refused requests for troops and additional security. This time, the capital building will be a fortress surrounded by thousands of soldiers armed to the teeth. If any MAGA asshats try to storm the capital again this time, they won’t have to worry about prosecution. They will simply not be leaving there alive.
People like to doom post about the Supreme Court, but in all practical reality, there is only so much they can do. Yes, if there is actually a legitimate question in an extremely close election, they can put their thumb on the scale and put their guy in power. That’s what happened in 2000. In 2000, things were razor-close, and there were some legitimate open questions about how to count ballots, questions of such triviality that no one had bothered litigating them before. And because Florida was within a few hundred votes, and because the Electoral College was basically tied, that distinction mattered.
But that really is the limit of how far the Supreme Court can go in putting their thumb on the scale. People like to Doompost and handwring about how, “omg, SCOTUS is just going to rule that Trump wins, even if he loses in a landslide.” I call bullshit on that. There is a word for that kind of comically farcical ruling - a coup by another name. If the court issues a ruling that just says, “lol, fuck democracy, our guy wins”…well we’ve abandoned all pretense at that point. And at that point, Biden can simply get up there and say, “the justices have completely abandoned democracy and have attempted to stage a coup from the bench. They are engaged in treason against the United States, and I have had them arrested, and they will be tried by military tribunal for their crimes against the Republic.”
I’m sorry, but people do not fuck around when it comes to presidential elections. A coup from the bench is as treasonous an act as storming the capital. Again, they do have some wiggle room. If the election is essentially a tossup, down to a few hundred votes in a single state? Sure, then they can choose a winner. But if it would require a comically biased, utterly farcical ruling? Well at that point what matters is who is currently holding the guns. And that will be the military led by Joe Biden. If they attempt a coup from the bench, they can be charged with treason, hauled in front of a military tribunal, and be dealt with quite quickly.
They realize that this is actually a possibility if they were to attempt a judicial coup. And they would much prefer their current cushy jobs to playing with that kind of fire. Again, if it’s close, they can put their thumb on the scale. But as a practical reality, SCOTUS can’t just completely overturn the results on an unambiguous election without gambling with their very lives. Nations do not fuck around when it comes to this kind of question of transfer of power.
I think what you’re saying is a reasonable take. I’m just not sure that’s how unreasonable people see the situation and that’s what we’re dealing with. So much of this is uncharted territory that I don’t think we can rely on how things should play out.