AFTER LOSING the by-election in the Toronto–St. Paul’s riding in June, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals took another blow in the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun (LÉV) by-election on September 16. Like St. Paul’s, LÉV was once considered a stronghold of the Liberals: in the 2021 federal election, the Liberal Party had won this southwestern Montreal riding by more than twenty percentage points.

These two crushing defeats, along with over a year’s worth of polling data, reveal a hard truth for the Liberals—they can now lose anywhere in the country. There are no safe seats left for the party.

All the warning signs have been flashing incessantly for over a year. The latest projections show the wear and tear of nearly a decade in power, and the widespread dissatisfaction with the prime minister could lead the Liberals to the brink of collapse in the next general election. This is not an editorial comment but a cold, factual analysis of the available data.