So - systems check time.
Made yourself a global pariah
Destroyed your primary export market.
Pissed away your Soviet stockpile inheritance
Blew your 30 year war chest of blood oil/gas, leaving your future extraction reserves of only the harder, more expensive to get variety.
Made yourself the permanent junior vassal to China, to whom you can now never refuse any demand for resources or concessions.
Destroyed any wisp of diplomatic credibility you’d had since even Stalinist times. Your remaining crop of fourth rate allies run only on bribes, and are comically useless compared even to the rogues gallery of corrupt tinpot dictators and thin skinned, low functioning mob bosses you propped up in Soviet times.
Pissed away your irreplaceable war stockpiles of missiles, attack helicopters, advanced fighter bombers and AWACS planes. Oh, and - the entire Black Sea Fleet. And the use of the Sevastopol Harbor that hosted it.
And - 575,000 working and breeding age males. So far. For a country with brutal demographics way below replacement rates. They would have been very useful to rebuild your society, rather than being slaughtered trying to establish a land bridge to a region that can no longer safely support military facilities
And for what? To be within visual range of territory you already controlled for a decade. Put this in perspective - so far through 2/3rds of 2024 alone, Russia have lost 180,000 casualties and masses of antiquated equipment, and taken the net sum of territory equivalent to the size of New York City. And your losses are RAPIDLY accelerating to higher than at ANY point in the war. You’re driving soldiers into the front lines with scooters, ladas and golf carts.
Oh, and the small neighbor of ‘racical inferiors’ you set out to commit national genocide against have claimed more of YOUR territory in 72 hours with 3 brigades than you have with 300 in 2.5 years.
And that’s to say NOTHING about what it would take to actually hold that ground long term with occupation forces and settlers despite a permanent insurrection of drones, snipers, IEDs, sabotage, assassinations, car bombs and other goodies that would keep your army bleeding indefinitely and make the American experience in Iraq seem like child’s play.
Also to say nothing of making an eternal enemy of your most powerful former abused client state. There is Absolutely. No. Cooperation between the malignant petromafia kleptocracy you’ve built and a sovreign Ukraine going forward. Your 1,000 year project of abusive cruelty against Ukraine is drawing to a close - that divorce is final, we’re just settling up the final bill, and neutering your sadistic tendencies as the same time
This has all been a GREAT idea. History is not going to be kind to the black hearted gangster ghouls who make it happen.
When people say that lets try the extreme right for once, or that dictators get things done way faster I’ll link your post to them.
Magnificent writeup.
And - 575,000 working and breeding age males. So far. For a country with brutal demographics way below replacement rates.
The 575k number is dead and wounded though, many of those will heal fine, so the number is too high for deaths.
But if you include everyone who got the fuck out before conscription hits them, the number should probably be doubled. At least.
Yep. no doubt. Imposssible to quantify, but reports at the time were at least a million men fled to Georgia, Kazakhstan, etc.
I make no claim that the 575k number is dead. Even UA says that’s their estimate of dead and wounded. And to be extremely generous, let’s say 30-40% of those wounded are probably so disabled, amputees or worse, that not only can they not fight anymore, but they can’t work jobs at their full pre-invasion potential. That would still be hundreds of thousands of lost labor force participants in a country who relies massively on heavy industry and resource extraction manned by able bodied, if often drunk, raw manpower. They won’t be shifting war amputees to service sectors desk jobs and call centers.
These newly disabled veterans will become burdens on a state that probably won’t honor the support agreements to their full extent, making them worse than simply unproductive - it will make them bitter living testaments to the stupidity of this war and it’s broken promises. In the cold caclulus of Russian brutality - these people are better off dead telling no tales and drawing no pension than they would be alive. Russia’s interal ethnic cleansing and useless mouth disposal of their own people sometimes gets lost in the ocean of wickedness that this entire war has been.
I’ve seen a paper saying that in Afghanistan amputee were 10% or wounded.
It’s hard to tell in Ukraine. The casualty rate for Russian is probably extremely high in the areas where they send meat waves one after the others. And for people to be disabled, they need to survive first.
But it’s very hard to make a stat over the whole war. I wouldn’t be surprised if 30% were dead and 20% disabled.
For after the war you need to add the trauma on top though. Even the able survivors will be psychologically scarred for life.
No biggie, only the intelectuals and the educated left. \s
The 575k number is dead and wounded though, many of those will heal fine,
Much like soldiers did after WWI, right?
The reality is that many people have lost limbs, eyes, hearing, and so on. That means that many of these people are not going to end up being productive workers once they’re released from service; they’re going to be less-capable than their abled-bodied counterparts, and in a functional country, would end up being a drain on the coffers due to disability pensions (I strongly doubt that Russia is going to give the wounded conscripts any kind of disability payments).
Any way you slice it, Russia is destroying their own future. This kind of war, in a time where people aren’t having children even at replacement level, simply isn’t sustainable.
You forgot the million or more Russian men, mostly with great education leaving the country due to the war. That was a harder hit then all the losses.
Does ‘hand to mouth’ mean it’s being sent away and used as soon as it’s produced?
Yup, exactly. Producing just enough to meet your current needs.
or, they’re using them up as fast as they can be produced.
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Yeah, fair points from both of you. If they could produce more, they’d probably still be used as soon as possible.
Well sure as soon as possible, but having a strategic stockpile for flexibility would be ideal. You can maintain pressure while adjusting to the changing battleground as needed.
Yep, that’s a more accurate way of putting it. @[email protected]’s phrasing made it sound like some well-organized kanban thing. 🤣
Russian cruise missiles were used in combat sometimes just weeks after rolling off the factory floor.
Yes, that’s exactly it. Their most advanced weaponry is being made and used instantly, as opposed to being drawn down from older stockpiles. This is suggestive that those initial stockplies are gone, and that they’re having to use things as fast as they can make them.
It paints a picture that they are struggling to keep up, that they’re not capable of further quick escalation, and that they’d be very sensitive to a disruption in the delivery of components required to make these things when they’re using them as fast as they can build them.
This also makes them vulnerable if there is any disruption in the supply chain.
The Russian cruise missile that slammed into a children’s hospital in Kyiv last month left behind clues about Russia’s defense industry after more than two years of war. The missile, a Kh-101 filled with about 1,000 pounds of explosives, was made this spring before the attack
8 days to 12 weeks specifically.
Imagine compromising your position this badly because you were desperate to destroy a children’s hospital
It’s terror bombing, because they can’t take out well-defended military targets well enough
That’s interesting. So if Ukraine can hit some of these factories they should basically see an immediate change on the battlefield.
Yes, and it makes more sense now why they’re pushing into Russia and attacking more distant targets
Not even necessarily hit it directly, just disturbing the line through cyber or supply disruption would be pretty catastrophic
