China’s exports of batteries, electric cars and solar panels hit record highs last year, underlining its dominance of key green industries — and driving a global price slump that’s adding to alarm in developed economies.
Is anyone else actually worried? Revenue is actually down.
For years there has been insatiable demand for solar panels. The more the price decreases the more demand increases. Classic capitalism.
The growth has been exponential but is this beginning to show signs of slowing?
The problem is largely the grid is fucked, I guess everywhere but Texas and no one can get anything hooked up. Large solar plants are the superior option to local, and this is going to suppress demand. I guess the hope is prices drop so much that market inefficiency is overcome and people put panels on their houses.
Then the government can get fucked and actually fix the grid before the whole system comes crashing down. That or they will just outright ban solar connection to the grid which will really fuck everything. Either way is going to be unpopular for them so maybe they will care less about the NIMBY folks and just get shit done.
Small private solar stations are vastly better than centralized power plants because their decentralized nature generally help with grid stability and are ultimately also add redundancy in possible events of failures (including possible attacks). But in either case, you need to update your grid to become smarter and distribute loads better, as well as having storage solutions, big and small (small decentralized storage should not be snuffed at because it eventually accumulates too). If you just sit on your ass and do nothing then yeah, your grid will suffer and eventually your whole electricity supply. We have NIMBY states like this in Germany too and at this point I’m all for cutting power to them if they want neither power generation nor distribution being build in their area. I don’t see why we should power those fucks when they’re blocking the whole progression so hard.
Until you realize that they’re a) very centralized and b) require a lot of empty space in a suitable location that isn’t better used for something else and c) consequently cockblocked by various regulations & NIMBYs. Meanwhile we have cities full of rooftops, facades, balconies, parking lots, and much much more other surface areas that are just sitting there without being utilized. It’s right there where the energy is also consumed, lowering bills and creating massive interconnected energy storage in the process.
Not meaning to add anything super meaningful to the conversation.
I think its funny that for what feels like since the beginning of humans, we’ve been debating centralised solutions vs distributed solutions. Its like a universal constant source of debate and will probably still be discussed long after were all gone.
I’d really like to know what really needs to be done on the grid to support a multitude of small local power producers.
My electrical knowledge isn’t up to the task and I’m not sure, if there are real technical limits/issues, or if it’s just a money problem to update/gix the grid
The main issue is that the grid was designed to go from a few large providers to a lot of small consumers. The equipment was designed with this, one way flow design, in mind.
Think of it a little like waterfalls. It’s easy to get water from a single source at the top of a hill, down to many ponds at the bottom. It’s far harder to get water from 1 pond to another.
In practice, this means that load balancing can be problematic. 1 area might have a glut of power. This sounds good, but it’s actually not. Without something drawing power, the voltage (and frequency) can climb. This can cause power spikes etc. This is why the wholesale price can sometimes go negative. The power plants are pushing too much power in, and can’t shut down fast enough. They actually pay companies to draw power, to keep the grid stable.
Conversely, other areas might have a sudden drop in capability. With a centralised grid, they can predict and balance this. With a highly localised grid, it can destabilise before they can correct. This will cause either a blackout, or a brownout event. Neither are good.
Basically, the grid needs to be adjusted to move power in ways it was never expected to have to move it. It will also need to react to faster changing supply or demand. Putting the equipment and cabling in to do this is slow and expensive.
Grids need to be updated with modern hardware that allow for intelligent load distribution, as well as generally good & many connectors between locations (the infamous big power lines you see stretching through nature, often the target of various conspiracy bullshit from people living near / under them), so that you can transport excess to where there is demand. It’s definitely an effort but generally worth it, because you can really expand on decentralized power generation such as private solar panels on roofs, balconies, gardens, etc.
I honestly don’t know why NIMBYs are so vehemently against this stuff because it would make their energy supply more independent and even lower their bills, or even give them income if they have a low power usage.
Thanks, I do get the basics. I would like to know, what technically needs to be done and what the real challenges are, to make to grid more flexible.
“Updating hardware” is not the in depth answer I was looking for ;-)
Apologies. The needs depend on the various start & end points of the grid. At home for example you would need smart meters that can read your current consumption & (and potential production) and send that data into the system. Our old electricity grids were sort of static and one way, with power plants running a constant amount of power through to our end points. See Smart Grids on Wikipedia for an entry point and you can also find various videos on that topic, one being even in the article. Basically at every point of generation, consumption & distribution you want devices like this so that we end up with an intelligent network of data points that can eventually automatically distribute power to and from where it is made & needed, especially in the context of variable power generation of renewables, but also our variable power consumption based on human & socioeconomic behavior.
Is anyone else actually worried? Revenue is actually down.
For years there has been insatiable demand for solar panels. The more the price decreases the more demand increases. Classic capitalism.
The growth has been exponential but is this beginning to show signs of slowing?
The problem is largely the grid is fucked, I guess everywhere but Texas and no one can get anything hooked up. Large solar plants are the superior option to local, and this is going to suppress demand. I guess the hope is prices drop so much that market inefficiency is overcome and people put panels on their houses.
Then the government can get fucked and actually fix the grid before the whole system comes crashing down. That or they will just outright ban solar connection to the grid which will really fuck everything. Either way is going to be unpopular for them so maybe they will care less about the NIMBY folks and just get shit done.
Small private solar stations are vastly better than centralized power plants because their decentralized nature generally help with grid stability and are ultimately also add redundancy in possible events of failures (including possible attacks). But in either case, you need to update your grid to become smarter and distribute loads better, as well as having storage solutions, big and small (small decentralized storage should not be snuffed at because it eventually accumulates too). If you just sit on your ass and do nothing then yeah, your grid will suffer and eventually your whole electricity supply. We have NIMBY states like this in Germany too and at this point I’m all for cutting power to them if they want neither power generation nor distribution being build in their area. I don’t see why we should power those fucks when they’re blocking the whole progression so hard.
Large solar stations are vastly better because they are cheaper and a much better use of limited resources.
Until you realize that they’re a) very centralized and b) require a lot of empty space in a suitable location that isn’t better used for something else and c) consequently cockblocked by various regulations & NIMBYs. Meanwhile we have cities full of rooftops, facades, balconies, parking lots, and much much more other surface areas that are just sitting there without being utilized. It’s right there where the energy is also consumed, lowering bills and creating massive interconnected energy storage in the process.
Not meaning to add anything super meaningful to the conversation.
I think its funny that for what feels like since the beginning of humans, we’ve been debating centralised solutions vs distributed solutions. Its like a universal constant source of debate and will probably still be discussed long after were all gone.
I just think that’s neat.
Both can have their pros and cons depending on type, use case and circumstances which need to be weighted against each other.
I’d really like to know what really needs to be done on the grid to support a multitude of small local power producers.
My electrical knowledge isn’t up to the task and I’m not sure, if there are real technical limits/issues, or if it’s just a money problem to update/gix the grid
The main issue is that the grid was designed to go from a few large providers to a lot of small consumers. The equipment was designed with this, one way flow design, in mind.
Think of it a little like waterfalls. It’s easy to get water from a single source at the top of a hill, down to many ponds at the bottom. It’s far harder to get water from 1 pond to another.
In practice, this means that load balancing can be problematic. 1 area might have a glut of power. This sounds good, but it’s actually not. Without something drawing power, the voltage (and frequency) can climb. This can cause power spikes etc. This is why the wholesale price can sometimes go negative. The power plants are pushing too much power in, and can’t shut down fast enough. They actually pay companies to draw power, to keep the grid stable.
Conversely, other areas might have a sudden drop in capability. With a centralised grid, they can predict and balance this. With a highly localised grid, it can destabilise before they can correct. This will cause either a blackout, or a brownout event. Neither are good.
Basically, the grid needs to be adjusted to move power in ways it was never expected to have to move it. It will also need to react to faster changing supply or demand. Putting the equipment and cabling in to do this is slow and expensive.
This might not be the depth you want, but it might have some stuff.
Connecting solar to the grid is harder than you think
Grids need to be updated with modern hardware that allow for intelligent load distribution, as well as generally good & many connectors between locations (the infamous big power lines you see stretching through nature, often the target of various conspiracy bullshit from people living near / under them), so that you can transport excess to where there is demand. It’s definitely an effort but generally worth it, because you can really expand on decentralized power generation such as private solar panels on roofs, balconies, gardens, etc. I honestly don’t know why NIMBYs are so vehemently against this stuff because it would make their energy supply more independent and even lower their bills, or even give them income if they have a low power usage.
Thanks, I do get the basics. I would like to know, what technically needs to be done and what the real challenges are, to make to grid more flexible.
“Updating hardware” is not the in depth answer I was looking for ;-)
Apologies. The needs depend on the various start & end points of the grid. At home for example you would need smart meters that can read your current consumption & (and potential production) and send that data into the system. Our old electricity grids were sort of static and one way, with power plants running a constant amount of power through to our end points. See Smart Grids on Wikipedia for an entry point and you can also find various videos on that topic, one being even in the article. Basically at every point of generation, consumption & distribution you want devices like this so that we end up with an intelligent network of data points that can eventually automatically distribute power to and from where it is made & needed, especially in the context of variable power generation of renewables, but also our variable power consumption based on human & socioeconomic behavior.
No need for an apology. Thanks for the explanation!