That said this part is simply false for people who own just one property - the one they live in. If you own a 1-bedroom condo which went from 400K to 800K between 2016 and 2021 and want to take the difference, you have to sell it. Great, you have 400K extra. Now where would you live?
I don’t know, but based on your previous comment where you said you’d save about $1700/mo renting you’d be 15 years of savings ahead of the renter.
My previous comment ($1700/mo) speaks of the status quo today and as I said in other comments it doesn’t bet whether the market would go up or down from here. It considers a sideways market.
The scenario where a condo doubles in price between 2016 and 2021 already has embedded in it the buyer winning the bet that the market would go up. I was merely clarifying the point that these savings aren’t realized unless the buyer changes accomodations for something cheaper, or as you point out, begins to rent. The article states it as if this money is available to spend when in the vast majority of cases it never becomes available.
Personally I did bet the market would go up back in 2016. If I have to bet today … I cannot picture how condos that were 400K in 2016, which are 800K today would become 1600K in 2031. We’re already at the point where the median household in Toronto has to pay 45% of its gross income to own the median condo, not a house. The median income has to increase significantly to sustain significant further growth in my opinion at this point. At 2% interest, the 45% number goes down to 32%, so lower interest rates are probably gonna pump it a bit higher, however inflation has already eaten up quite a bit of income so I think the effect would be softer than the typical.
I don’t know, but based on your previous comment where you said you’d save about $1700/mo renting you’d be 15 years of savings ahead of the renter.
My previous comment ($1700/mo) speaks of the status quo today and as I said in other comments it doesn’t bet whether the market would go up or down from here. It considers a sideways market.
The scenario where a condo doubles in price between 2016 and 2021 already has embedded in it the buyer winning the bet that the market would go up. I was merely clarifying the point that these savings aren’t realized unless the buyer changes accomodations for something cheaper, or as you point out, begins to rent. The article states it as if this money is available to spend when in the vast majority of cases it never becomes available.
Personally I did bet the market would go up back in 2016. If I have to bet today … I cannot picture how condos that were 400K in 2016, which are 800K today would become 1600K in 2031. We’re already at the point where the median household in Toronto has to pay 45% of its gross income to own the median condo, not a house. The median income has to increase significantly to sustain significant further growth in my opinion at this point. At 2% interest, the 45% number goes down to 32%, so lower interest rates are probably gonna pump it a bit higher, however inflation has already eaten up quite a bit of income so I think the effect would be softer than the typical.