- cross-posted to:
- ontario
- cross-posted to:
- ontario
Results are still pouring in from ridings across the province, so the size of the majority is uncertain. In addition to Ford, NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner have won re-election, CBC News Projects.
This thinking is flawed if applied in general without any consideration of the dynamics in a particular riding. I don’t know how many people think and vote this way without checking their riding’s numbers. Perhaps many. In my riding it was the right move, as the NDP candidate got under 5%. Given how three seats were won by less than 40 votes, I think there’s some validity in informed strategic vote. But voting for OLP instead of ONDP “strategically” without checking riding numbers is very much flawed and I hope these people, along with traditional OLP voters would do something else the next time around.
Maybe ndp would have more than 5% of the vote if people picked the candidate they actually want instead of voting strategically.
True if you believe strategic vote is a large proportion. I don’t. I believe the majority of voters vote based on party leaders, past preferences, etc. I don’t believe strategic vote can make up a 40% difference. I believe strategic vote shift to ONDP would mean PCs stay at 45% while OLP and ONDP get to something closer to 35% and 15%, or 30/20. The PCs still win, with higher margin. That’s my guess. For the parties to switch positions in such riding, I believe it’ll take significant campaigning by the ONDP candidate as well as Marit Stiles positioning herself as a significantly better leader than whoever heads the OLP, and clear, bold populist policies. If such a change occurs, the informed strategic vote will shift accordingly. If the polls in my riding showed 5-10% advantage for the ONDP I’d have voted for them.