Jonathan Koomey

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green Dude, you’re just trolling at this point. You can’t use the reality of the current system to argue that the system can’t be changed to operate differently. Internalize the externalities then change will happen quickly. I’ve explained what I think the logical flaws are in your statements, now it’s time to move on. Good day.

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green And of course we’re seeing very rapid growth in renewable power generation + battery storage, doubling every 2-3 years, in part because it’s cheaper even in direct costs terms than alternatives. Because of learning effects, that cost advantage will only increase over time.

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green I would add that current measures of economic activity only imperfectly capture the externalities associated with pollution, so the GDP growth that you now see is partly the result of ignoring real costs of fossil pollution.

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green Vohra, Karn, Alina Vodonos, Joel Schwartz, Eloise A. Marais, Melissa P. Sulprizio, and Loretta J. Mickley. 2021. “Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem.” Environmental Research. 2021/02/09/. pp. 110754. [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121000487]

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green Roberts, David. 2020. Air pollution is much worse than we thought: Ditching fossil fuels would pay for itself through clean air alone. Vox, 2020. [https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths]

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green Epstein, et al. 2011. “Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal.” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. vol. 1219, no. 1. February 17. pp. 73-98. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05890.x]

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green When you count all the costs, the zero emissions solutions are ALREADY cheaper than fossil fuels. Muller, Nicholas Z., Robert Mendelsohn, and William Nordhaus. 2011. “Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the United States Economy.” American Economic Review. vol. 101, no. 5. August. pp. 1649–1675. [https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.5.1649]

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green Finally, embedded emissions for manufactured products are almost always small compared to direct emissions from their use, even for products created in the current system.

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green There are some embedded emissions from creating certain materials (e.g. aluminum, cement, steel) but in each case there are ways to produce these materials without those process emissions.

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green No, H2 is problematic for many reasons. Even if generated from electrolysis, H2 itself is an indirect GHG.

In any case, the idea that embedded emissions are a transient phenomenon follows from that fact that almost all embedded emissions come from energy use, and in a zero emissions system, that energy use would have zero emissions.

@jackofalltrades @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green People with houses and EVs powered by solar PVs + batteries is the simplest example. The embedded emissions are a transient phenomenon, once we’ve decarbonized supply chains that issue will be solved.

@coffee2Di4 @jackofalltrades @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green PS. Anyone talking about this issue needs to distinguish between absolute decoupling of ENERGY USE from economic activity and absolute decoupling of EMISSIONS from economic activity. Achieving the latter is much easier than the former, given the many ways to power modern tech with zero emissions, but people often conflate the two.

@coffee2Di4 @jackofalltrades @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green Technology change is complex and multifactorial, but people like to boil stuff down to simple explanations, like the Jevons Paradox. Unfortunately, these simple explanations are usually wrong.

@coffee2Di4 @jackofalltrades @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green People building bigger houses or buying bigger cars isn’t solely caused by efficiency improvements, and efficiency is nowhere near the most important contributor to this effect.

@coffee2Di4 @jackofalltrades @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green In the same way, people look at aggregate statistics for energy use and say “look, efficiency causes energy use to go up” but there are many other factors pushing energy use upwards. Overall increase in wealth is the most powerful one.

@coffee2Di4 @jackofalltrades @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green Efficiency wasn’t the sole reason for its ascendence, and probably wasn’t the most important reason, but the lesson most people take from this “effect” is that efficiency causes increases in energy use. That conclusion is almost always false.

@coffee2Di4 @jackofalltrades @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green These reasons included higher power densities, the ability to store energy, the ability to locate motive power flexibly within factories, the ability to operate underground. Steam engines were what is known as a general purpose technology, which had wide and deep applications across society.

@coffee2Di4 @jackofalltrades @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green The Jevons paradox is widely misunderstood and almost always overestimated. Jevons himself made the mistake of attributing to efficiency improvements the rapid adoption of the steam engine, but there were many other reasons why steam engines were widely adopted.

@jackofalltrades @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green What we have to do is unprecedented, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done. And your judgment about what is “plausible” isn’t evidence either. My point is that absolute decoupling is possible, we just need to do it. Most people use historical examples to argue that it can’t be done, which is invalid and wrong. Will it be hard? Absolutely. But it is possible.

@urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @jackofalltrades @ajsadauskas @green Remember also that absolute decoupling of energy from GDP is harder than absolute decoupling of emissions from GDP. There are many ways to supply energy services without increasing emissions.