First off, I apologize for what must have come across as condescension. You’re clearly far more steeped in economics than I am; my knowledge, limited as it is, comes from editing stories, not any formal economic education.

But I’ve been seeing this idea that mortgage rates track with the overnight lending rate quite a bit of late (it’s pervasive on Reddit), and, as so frequently happens, when I finally snap, it’s at the wrong person.

Mea culpa.

Thank you for the detailed analysis. I’ve honestly not been following the markets in general in several years, since at this point, I’m not a participant in that world, and I’m not going out of my way to find out what short- and long-term rates are doing.

But holy shit … three cycles of inversion? That’s not a red flag but rather “we’re fucked.” It also suggests that while Trump may be ushering this to its logical conclusion, structural flaws were evident to investors years prior (go figure, with the sort of debt we’ve been piling up). I concur with your assessment that this depression is going to make 2008 look like a minor blip.

The U.S. had a good run as the controller of the world’s economy, but I swear our foot-shooting gun is an AR-15. Totally unrelated sidenote, if you look at the price of gold, it doesn’t suggest there’s a sudden surge in demand for bullion, but rather that the dollar has been systematically debased. I inherited some in college, and I sold it to go on a ski vacation with friends in 1999 – at $289/oz.

The only reason we have trillion-dollar companies is … dollars aren’t worth much anymore. I got a shave and a haircut last week. Didn’t ask the price, as it was a new local place I was trying out. But it was $50 (thank goodness I had that much on me – I was expecting $30 at most). A far cry from the famous price in the song.

They’re still calling it the Gulf of Finland instead of the Gulf of Russia?

This is a very common misconception. Mortgage rates have never had anything to do with the Fed funds rate (which deals in very short-term loans between banks and the Fed itself). They’re determined by the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries.

However, this mismatch is not an inherent sign of an inverted yield curve, which is an absolutely worrisome development that historically presages a recession. We’re definitely on our way there with import taxes and the job market falling off a cliff, but this is not the canary in the coal mine you fear it to be.

The rough patch continues apace. One bright spot was trying out a new place for breakfast tacos two days ago. It’s one of those coffee/beer/mixed drinks places.

They were out of the bacon ones, so I just got a plain one. It was quite good, and I decided to return the next day, just after open. Got my bacon taco (and a spare to go), the bartender remembered me by name, and as people started heading in, I felt at ease. It’s one of those throwback places where everyone’s nice.

It’s not impossible to find in Austin, but it’s not the default expectation.

Anyway, I’d been up since midnight, so by 7:30 a.m., I figured a beer wasn’t a terrible idea. So I set up shop on a barstool, and roughly an hour later, a woman sits down next to me with her laptop. Conversation ensues, and it turns out she’s the marketing director for a startup. Not my preferred field, but she asked about my work history, and I showed her my LinkedIn.

They don’t have any current openings (who does in this climate?), but she sent a connection request, so I’m at least on their radar. They have a physical product, which she had next to her laptop. It’s a decent sign, though it’s a laser-based health device sold as being good for more ailments than plausible.

So, I got tacos, have a new place to hang out and did some accidental networking.

Sadly, we’re still in the 90s for temps, so the van is … survivable, but that’s a low bar for housing. My sleep sked is still beyond erratic.

One of my two outlets finally gave up the ghost last night, so I currently have the choice of my internet working or having my computer on. Amazon offered a free month of Prime when I signed in, allowing me to get a two-pack delivered today (24VDC high-wattage USB chargers aren’t available locally) … the delivery window is now open, but I’ve been having to hotspot all day, being judicious about the media I’m consuming on a 5GB cell plan.

Hopefully, this will all soon be but a happy memory. Things with the ex cooled off on her birthday after she asked me to visit but as the only one working was unwilling to help pay for the $140 round trip, so I’ve gotten back to something approaching baseline on my mental state with her. Being reminded that I’m just a convenience is always fun. But honestly good for my sanity, as it reminded me why we don’t work after starting to have long, daily phone calls.

It feels like I’m on the cusp of something, but I have no idea what it is. It’s still better than being stuck in neutral.

No one wants what the gerontocracy is selling. We already can’t afford housing and will never have any sort of financial stability because our parents (I’m Gen X) decided they should get all the money.

And you want me to vote for a septuagenarian? Fuck off. Go find a nice porch with a rocking chair from all your lobbyist dollars.

I think the primary, if she runs for president, will consist of Pritzger, Newsom and her. This is speculation from September 2025, so a lot of shit will change between then and now. Chilling as it is to say, there’s no guarantee all three will still be alive.

I don’t think we’ll get any clarity until we see how 2026 plays out.

As realistic as what happened in 2016 with the full weight of the DNC being brought to bear on Sanders.

Realistically, unless something dramatically changes, there’s no way the DNC would allow her to get the nomination for either position during the primary process.

They don’t see anyone as human. They’re in it for themselves, and we’re just useful marks and fodder to extract from.

I wish we’d stop throwing “neo-” in front. These are Nazis.

That trip was likely the most time they’ve spent together this year. Must’ve been miserable.

Unemployment for college graduates averaged 5.3% in Q2 2025, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Underemployment held steady at a whopping 41%.

There’s no missing decimal point there. Hope the First National Bank of Mom has generous lending terms.

“Fly safely,” Trump said, wrapping up the question and answer session.

“You know why I say that? Because I’m on the flight. I want to get home, otherwise I wouldn’t care,” he added.

At least he’s making no attempt to hide his narcissism. Doesn’t even fucking care about his trophy wife.

Meh, all you really need is a tacky “live laugh love” font on distressed wood. From TJ Maxx.

Demand tends to drop off when people are getting paid wages that don’t allow them to afford housing, let alone niceties. The corporations did this to themselves, and now we have import taxes atop that. There’s no way out of an extremely painful recession, but I don’t see the way out of it.

I mean, Trump invented groceries, so …

I swear sometimes that at this point all we produce as a country is ads. People in marketing mock their customers (source: was in marketing to make better wages than journalism for less than a year) and think they’re doing the lord’s work because of their salaries.

Use magnets like a decent human.

I doubt most of these people have ever heard of Naomi Klein.

If there’s one answer we’re finally getting, it’s to “How did Hitler actually rise to power in a democracy?”