• foggianism@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Oh yes, exactly because of that! It may seem farfetched to come to that conclusion, but only if you look at things as isolated happenings instead of in a more global geopolitical scope.

      Turkey, Iran and Egypt are eager to enter the stage. Their only repellent is the US’ firm stance with Israel. But how long can this Mexican standoff be in place?

      Israel has already cut Gaza in half and now they are going to increase the killings in the northern half in which still 1.1 million citizens live. The number of casualties will increase dramatically and the videos and images will ignite the region. One of the eager neighbors mentioned above might enter the stage, they might even jointly enter all at the same time.

      What happens if Turkey, a NATO member, enters Israel? What are the implications of this?

      China is smelling US weakness and can’t wait for something like that to happen. They will immediately proceed with their plan of annexing Taiwan.

      If that happens, Russia will mobilize with full force and there you have it - WW3.

      All because America couldn’t say to Israel to lift it’s finger from the trigger.

      • afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        This is a very large logic train and you can’t demonstrate A->B let alone A->Z. Basically confirmation bias.

      • CarbonIceDragon@pawb.social
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        1 year ago

        China cannot simply invade Taiwan in a moment whenever opportunity strikes, it would need significant and obvious preparation and buildup, because they would be contemplating a naval invasion on an almost unprecedented scale.

        Russia probably will mobilize however far it’s government feels it safely can regardless of China; NATO isn’t going to directly invade Russia itself because of it’s nuclear arsenal, and isn’t terribly likely to actually send a serious number of troops to Ukraine for the same reason, so what it primarily has to worry about is western sanctions and military equipment, and of course the efforts of the Ukrainians themselves, which it already has to deal with regardless of what China is doing.

        Israel for it’s part is also a nuclear armed state, so actual full scale war being declared upon it by it’s neighbors is unlikely. Support for terrorist or resistance groups, sure, maybe some sanctions, and definitely a lot strongly worded condemnation, but I’d very much doubt that the leadership of those countries cares enough about the Palestinians to declare a possibility suicidal war over it, the kind of politicians that lead these countries aren’t exactly famous for their empathy.

          • assassin_aragorn@lemmy.world
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            1 year ago

            But if they’re at war, that ties up a lot of their resources. They’re currently using their military strength to claim international waters in the South China Sea. If they get into a war with Taiwan, they can’t back that claim up. The countries which are being unfairly denied those waters can assert themselves without fear of significant reprisal, and the US would be more than happy to aid that.

            There’s really no sensible reason for China to go after Taiwan, it’s complete bait. They stand to lose far more than they stand to gain.

            • AngryCommieKender@lemmy.world
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              1 year ago

              The two small islands close to mainland China will be the proving grounds, I’d expect. Unless he decides to retake the Vladivostok Oblast.

        • foggianism@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          Israel can only ever hope to use its nuclear arsenal as a deterrant to its neighboring countries. As soon as they use a single nuclear warhead in the region, it will instantaneously lose all the support it still had in the world and beyond that point it is hard to predict what the world will turn into, but it would be ugly.

      • deleted@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        I don’t think turkey will enter Israel at all. Maybe Egypt if US insisted on moving Gazaians to Sinai.

        Also why Russia will mobilize? They have no incentive to face NATO now. Maybe weakening the west in the long run.