This is a very important and interesting news. While China has a measure of control over two of the largest ethnic armies in Burma - MNDAA and UWSA owing to the fact that they were founded by China and they speak Mandarin, it has scant influence on Arakan Army, a fairly recent guerilla group formed by a charismatic leader.

China has oil and gas pipelines that originates at the coast of Arakan terminating in China. It is also developing a large deep sea port that will facilitate its exports to India, Africa, Middle East and Europe from Southwest China. And transport of imports from African continent where it has invested much in resource mining. Arakan coast, and infrastructure projects through Burma to Southwest China is key to its efforts to revive a flagging economic growth, and open up an impoverished and populated interior of China to global trade.

There are alternative routes for this trade route to proceed through Laos and Thailand (as well as Southern China) but the distance travelled is much longer, and the Thai project for opening up a deep sea port on its western coast has yet to start.

China’s economic growth is flailing. Its economy is on the brink. The Chinese move to fully commit to supporting an unpopular and failing genocidal dictator in Min Aung Hlaing knowing the huge risks that entails shows just how desperate China is.