This seems to rest on the assumption that there’s some fat for China to cut, but China’s exports are already incredibly competitively priced, especially with China’s intentional devaluation of their currency which makes Chinese exports more attractive to other countries. China doesn’t seem interested in generating profit, but expanding jobs, so it’s in their interest to operate on thin margins, especially given the massive shipping costs.

So I don’t think it will result in lower global inflation. I think it may trigger a recession, because tariffs (increased imports costs) + mass deportations (increased labor costs) would dramatically increase the costs of goods in the US. If there’s a recession, companies will cut headcount to save on costs, which would likely reduce supply, therefore driving prices up. And recessions have a habit of cascading, so that could result in increased prices in many other parts of the world as well.

If it doesn’t trigger a recession, yeah, maybe it’ll put downward pressure on some products, but I doubt it would be huge, since a lot of the factors that contribute to the inflation figures don’t really involve Chinese exports. So if there’s downward pressure on inflation, I think it would be minimal.

However, I’m not an economist, so what do I know.