Yeah, it’s comparing apples to oranges to say there’s lots of apples. Sure there’s lots of apples.
Then there’s the thumbnail chart hinting something is crashing when that’s not happening. So far they’ve demonstrated significant resilience against the sanctions we’ve imposed and their economy has remained stable and returned to growth. If they don’t run out of labor and natural resources, they can keep this going for a very long time. I’m not saying this because I want them to be able to. I’m saying it because I’m disappointed at the propaganda in our politics and media that lead us to believe we can crash Russia’s economy. This created unrealistic expectations and it probably contributed to the lesser support ro weapons delivery which has led us to the status quo we face today.
These processes are slow and they put their heads on the table to make sure some gray alternative channel still works. If something, these measures would take effect somewhere in 2030s for the big players. Yet, Gazprom reported negative balance recently, and other resource-oriented conpanies too, so some effect already took place.
Many effects took place. That said I think you’re wrong about the speed of the effects. There were quick and sizeable effects. However Russia simply reshuffled the economy. Russia, or any country, doesn’t need to export or import anything if they’re self sufficient. They can replace the lost income from those exports with public investment into something else. For example military production and soldiers. And that’s what they did. Now Russia isn’t self sufficient but China has filled the gap for their high tech import needs and is taking Russian fossil fuels in exchange. So is India. Given that Russia has both markets for its export and sources for its necessary imports, I don’t believe there’s any further effects from sanctions we could expect. That’s how I read the tea leaves anyway.
Russia doesn’t export high tech into China if I read you right. And it doesn’t produce much for it’s authonomy in spite for the move for импортозамещение or replacing exports. It still depends on things they import, including chips for military production and some casual things like home devices, ingredients for brewing etc.
Partially, but most goes through grey channels and would do so. Intel 13k, nVidia 4k, they all happen to get there from China but with more and more variable locations on the way.
Right, sanctions only work effectively when the two most populous and resource hungry countries in the world don’t actively support the sanctioned country. China I understand, as it’s a proxy war with the West. India seems to be moving in a direction that I didn’t see them moving even a few years ago.
Yeah, it’s comparing apples to oranges to say there’s lots of apples. Sure there’s lots of apples.
Then there’s the thumbnail chart hinting something is crashing when that’s not happening. So far they’ve demonstrated significant resilience against the sanctions we’ve imposed and their economy has remained stable and returned to growth. If they don’t run out of labor and natural resources, they can keep this going for a very long time. I’m not saying this because I want them to be able to. I’m saying it because I’m disappointed at the propaganda in our politics and media that lead us to believe we can crash Russia’s economy. This created unrealistic expectations and it probably contributed to the lesser support ro weapons delivery which has led us to the status quo we face today.
These processes are slow and they put their heads on the table to make sure some gray alternative channel still works. If something, these measures would take effect somewhere in 2030s for the big players. Yet, Gazprom reported negative balance recently, and other resource-oriented conpanies too, so some effect already took place.
Many effects took place. That said I think you’re wrong about the speed of the effects. There were quick and sizeable effects. However Russia simply reshuffled the economy. Russia, or any country, doesn’t need to export or import anything if they’re self sufficient. They can replace the lost income from those exports with public investment into something else. For example military production and soldiers. And that’s what they did. Now Russia isn’t self sufficient but China has filled the gap for their high tech import needs and is taking Russian fossil fuels in exchange. So is India. Given that Russia has both markets for its export and sources for its necessary imports, I don’t believe there’s any further effects from sanctions we could expect. That’s how I read the tea leaves anyway.
Russia doesn’t export high tech into China if I read you right. And it doesn’t produce much for it’s authonomy in spite for the move for импортозамещение or replacing exports. It still depends on things they import, including chips for military production and some casual things like home devices, ingredients for brewing etc.
I meant they are not self-sufficient in tech but they can fulfill those needs by importing from China and India.
Partially, but most goes through grey channels and would do so. Intel 13k, nVidia 4k, they all happen to get there from China but with more and more variable locations on the way.
Right, sanctions only work effectively when the two most populous and resource hungry countries in the world don’t actively support the sanctioned country. China I understand, as it’s a proxy war with the West. India seems to be moving in a direction that I didn’t see them moving even a few years ago.
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