I was curious about this because I felt like this has been a problem for longer than that, and after a bit of searching I found this random forum post that compiled some stats around week 1 rookie starters. It’s from 2021, so a bit out of date, and the formatting is a bit confusing, but it’s still interesting to look at.
Filling out the list after 2020 from memory and some quick Googling, 2021 would add Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, and Zach Wilson, 2022 had no week 1 rookie starters (Kenny Pickett wouldn’t start until week 4) for the first time since 2007, and 2023 had CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson.
As for trends, there was a meaningful bump after 2000, as 10 rookies started week 1 between 2000 and 2010 compared to just 3 across the 90s. The insane 2012 class really kicked it into high gear though.
I think the league’s increased passing focus caused it to happen more often, but usually out of desperation or with players considered to be generational prospects, but then 2012 seemed to give everyone the impression that it could happen regularly.
I was curious about this because I felt like this has been a problem for longer than that, and after a bit of searching I found this random forum post that compiled some stats around week 1 rookie starters. It’s from 2021, so a bit out of date, and the formatting is a bit confusing, but it’s still interesting to look at.
Filling out the list after 2020 from memory and some quick Googling, 2021 would add Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, and Zach Wilson, 2022 had no week 1 rookie starters (Kenny Pickett wouldn’t start until week 4) for the first time since 2007, and 2023 had CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson.
As for trends, there was a meaningful bump after 2000, as 10 rookies started week 1 between 2000 and 2010 compared to just 3 across the 90s. The insane 2012 class really kicked it into high gear though.
I think the league’s increased passing focus caused it to happen more often, but usually out of desperation or with players considered to be generational prospects, but then 2012 seemed to give everyone the impression that it could happen regularly.