Donald Trump ought to be the main issue in this election. He led a conspiracy to overthrow our elected government, he incited political violence on his own behalf and then refused to intervene to stop it, and he has publicly demanded that the U.S. Constitution be “terminated” – his word choice, no...
  • elbucho@lemmy.worldEnglish
    20·
    2 months ago

    It is a pretty great picture, but it’s not going to somehow magically make people who hate Trump suddenly decide to vote for him. At best, it’ll energize his base into voting, but his base was already really energized.

    • SatansMaggotyCumFart@lemmy.world
      55·
      2 months ago

      There’s a ton of fence sitters who are going to choose a side in the next couple months and this picture is going to persuade some of them to vote for him.

      • elbucho@lemmy.worldEnglish
        6·
        2 months ago

        I mean, maybe. But let’s not confuse our fears with evidence, here. There’s no evidence as yet that this incident or this picture will lead to a statistically significant bump in people voting for him.

          • elbucho@lemmy.worldEnglish
            6·
            2 months ago

            The only real historical example that can be looked at as a parallel is when Reagan got shot in 1981. Yes, he did win the 1984 election in a landslide, but:

            • He won the 1980 election in a landslide as well, so he was already super popular in the country
            • He was the incumbent, and incumbents historically have done well in their re-election bids
            • His opponent was Walter Mondale, a milquetoast neoliberal who was so boring it’s surprising that his name didn’t become synonymous with yawning.

            In short, there’s not really enough evidence to say definitively that an assassination attempt will bolster a candidate’s chances at the polls.