• Arete@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    13
    arrow-down
    33
    ·
    1 year ago

    Is this 22,600 number accurate? It’s more precise than I would expect. I’ve also seen estimates of 8000 hamas militants killed, which is presumably included here as the Gaza authorities have never previously made a distinction. That suggests about 2 civilian deaths per soldier killed which is honestly a lot less than I would expect given all the “genocide” rhetoric.

    I think Afghanistan ended up being about 1 civilian per 2 soldiers? That’s 4x lower, but was largely fought in low population density deserts. Is there even a modern equivalent to draw a comparison with to gauge what a “normal” civilian casualty rate is for urban warfare?

      • Arete@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        3
        arrow-down
        16
        ·
        1 year ago

        How so? I obviously assume the numbers on both sides are exaggerated, which is why I rounded everything in favor of there being more civilian deaths. How many hamas fighters do you think have been killed?

        • polyploy@lemmy.dbzer0.com
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          1 year ago

          The Lancet is generally regarded as one of the most reputable and trustworthy medical journals. An assessment of the figures from the Gaza Ministry of Health published in the Lancet found that there was no evidence of inflated mortality statistics, and even went beyond that to say that it is considerably more likely that the Gaza Ministry of Health is under reporting the casualties providing the most conservative figures.

          If MoH mortality figures were substantially inflated, the MoH mortality rates would be expected to be higher than the UNRWA mortality rates. Instead, the MoH mortality rates are lower than the rates reported for UNRWA staff (5·3 deaths per 1000 vs 7·8 deaths per 1000, as of Nov 10, 2023). Hypothetically, if MoH mortality data were inflated from, for example, an underlying value of 2–4 deaths per 1000, it would imply that UNRWA staff mortality risk is 2·0–3·9 times higher than that of the public. This scenario is unlikely as many UNRWA staff deaths occurred at home or in areas with high civilian populations, such as in schools or shelters.

          Mortality reporting is difficult to conduct in ongoing conflicts. Initial news reports might be imprecise, and subsequent verified reports might undercount deaths that are not recorded by hospitals or morgues, such as persons buried under rubble (appendix pp 1–2). However, difficulties obtaining accurate mortality figures should not be interpreted as intentionally misreported data.

          Although valid mortality counts are important, the situation in Gaza is severe, with high levels of civilian harm and extremely restricted access to aid. Efforts to dispute mortality reporting should not distract from the humanitarian imperative to save civilian lives by ensuring appropriate medical supplies, food, water, and fuel are provided immediately.

          Here’s a link to the source of this quote.

        • Linkerbaan@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          arrow-down
          4
          ·
          edit-2
          1 year ago

          Seeing as the death rate pretty much reflects the population rate, it’s clear that the bombing is indiscriminate. 1/3 are women. 1/3 are children. 1/3 are men.

          The IDF seems to adopt the Obama Doctrine: Under Obama, Men Killed by Drones Are Presumed to Be Terrorists

          Let’s not forget Julian Assange is prosecuted for exposing the American military’s indiscriminate murdering and labeling everyone they kill as terrorists. NSFL: https://youtu.be/HfvFpT-iypw?si=tnK_NxtddWHDmc37&t=280 (starts at 4:30)

    • Excrubulent@slrpnk.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      25
      arrow-down
      12
      ·
      edit-2
      1 year ago

      “Did that even happen?
      And if it did, was it that bad?
      And if it was, was it that big of a deal?
      And if it was, does it matter?
      And if it does, did they mean it?
      And if they did, didn’t the victims deserve it?”

      The narcissist’s prayer is no less cowardly when you phrase it in question form.

          • AnyProgressIsGood@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            4
            arrow-down
            8
            ·
            edit-2
            1 year ago

            Well if 2-3 people with a label said so I should ignore the numbers, the terrorist human shield fighting style, and urban warfare’s well documented chaos.

            Why use hard numbers to come to conclusions when I can have someone tell me it is

            I like that even your source has experts disagreeing and cherry picking what equates for real genocide

            • Excrubulent@slrpnk.net
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              9
              arrow-down
              3
              ·
              1 year ago

              Pay attention folks: this is why fascism is anti-intellectual, because they have to deny the experts that will recognise what they’re doing and call it out for what it is.

      • Arete@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        10
        arrow-down
        16
        ·
        1 year ago

        If I said something factually wrong please correct me. Otherwise let’s leave the ad hominem attacks unsaid.

        • chaogomu@kbin.social
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          21
          arrow-down
          5
          ·
          1 year ago

          Well, first of all is the idea that this level of destruction is in any way normal in war.

          Take a look at this chart here. Those date ranges in the chart have some of the bloodiest conflict in each war, and yet on any given day only a handful of children would die.

          Israel is killing an average of almost 150 children per day.

          That’s why we’re calling it a genocide.

            • xor@lemmy.blahaj.zone
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              6
              arrow-down
              2
              ·
              1 year ago

              “more than normal” in this case is 1/3 of the total child deaths in 11 years in Syria, done in ONE MONTH

            • Aceticon@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              3
              arrow-down
              2
              ·
              edit-2
              1 year ago

              That’s like describing the purposeful crushing under a steam roller of a person tied up in the middle of the road and unable to escape as a “more than normal” traffic accident.

          • Arete@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            4
            arrow-down
            15
            ·
            edit-2
            1 year ago

            Appreciate the good faith response. While I’m certainly not going to excuse thousands of dead children, I don’t find these other conflicts comparable for the following reasons:

            • these are averaged over about a decade, most of which is in the form of a “frozen” conflict between entrenched armies outside of populated areas. We might (I don’t have numbers on this) see a much higher rate if we focused in on the hottest/most urban part of each war. The “30 day” range for this conflict is widely out of step with the others. If we “froze” the conflict for a decade, we’d depress the number by 120x and it would suddenly match the others.
            • most of these did not involve significant urban conflict in populated areas, especially with an entrenched defender making use of human shields.
            • the average age in Gaza is only ~18, meaning all else being equal, child deaths will be outsized. Further, Hamas employs teenage soldiers and the provided numbers don’t make a civilian/militant distinction. As horrific as it is, there is a difference between an armed 17 year old child soldier and a 3 year old bystander.
            • chaogomu@kbin.social
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              19
              arrow-down
              3
              ·
              1 year ago

              Okay, city fighting is messy…

              Except the second item on the list,

              https://edition.cnn.com/gaza-israel-big-bombs

              Israel is using 2000lbs bombs in Gaza, using hundreds of them. These are not, in any way, targeted strikes. They kill civilians by the dozens.

              In 20 years of war, the US only ever used 500lbs bombs in urban environments. Even that was often barbaric in the amount of collateral damage caused.

              Also, are you calling the fucking Battle of Mosula frozen conflict?

              That was some of the bloodiest fighting in the entire war, all of it urban. There were fewer children killed in the entire 9 months than there have been killed in 3 in Gaza. And not by a small amount.

              • Arete@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                4
                arrow-down
                11
                ·
                1 year ago

                Yeah those are fair points. I’ve never defended the usage of 2000 pound bombs in urban areas.

                I’m also certainly not calling Mosul a frozen conflict, merely noting that it is deceptive to present an average figure of child deaths over the 14 year long Iraq war against 30 days of intense urban fighting in Gaza.

                I didn’t follow the fighting at the time, but per wikipedia the operation took 9 months, with the majority of the fighting/bombing happening during the initial 3 months during which half the city was taken. The enemy force was approximately half as strong as Hamas, and an estimated 20k - 40k civilians were killed, with about 1 million displaced. Interestingly it seems like the population density is somewhat comparable today, although it is hard to estimate the population at the time.

                Taken together, this might make Mosul a good benchmark against which to judge the Israeli assault. Doing so, Israel definitely seems more cavalier to civilian deaths, but not wildly so. I still don’t see “genocide” here.

                • chaogomu@kbin.social
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  14
                  arrow-down
                  2
                  ·
                  1 year ago

                  Take it from someone who was paying attention at the time. As bloody and horrific as it was, the fighting in Mosul was fucking laser guided precision compared to what Israel is doing in Gaza.

                  Israel is using massive bombs in areas that it tells refugees are safe. They bomb refugee camps and convoys. As in, directly targeting them, with bombs designed to cause as much collateral damage as possible.

                  And remember, the refugees are only camped in those places and taking those routes because Israel said they would be safe.


                  As to the “not being fair” comparing the dead children in different wars, remember that Total deaths of children in Iraq, for the entire 14 years of the conflict with ISIS, were less than died in Gaza in a single month.

                  That’s what you don’t seem to understand. That’s why we can easily call this a genocide in motion.

                  Add in comments by Israeli officials about “voluntary resettlement” in other countries.

                  It’s pure genocide. They’re literally saying “leave your home or die, surrender your land and property on the way out”. It’s exactly what the Germans said to Jews in the lead up to the Holocaust.

                  • Arete@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    English
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    arrow-down
                    11
                    ·
                    1 year ago

                    I haven’t seen evidence for a lot of those points as you state them. I have seen evidence of single bombs dropped both along evacuation routes and in camps. These were always accompanied by statements that there were Hamas targets present, which obviously could be a lie. That being said, and taking all the reports together, I think if Israel was directly targeting civilians (as opposed to targeting Hamas and not caring about nearby civilians) they would have both killed hundreds of thousands and there would be evidence of repeated, sustained bombings of civilian targets.

                    As to your final point, statements by a few Israeli officials regarding “voluntary” resettlement is advocating genocide. These people should be arrested, and if such a resettlement happens I will reverse my stance of this.

                • Excrubulent@slrpnk.net
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  13
                  arrow-down
                  2
                  ·
                  edit-2
                  1 year ago

                  I still don’t see “genocide” here.

                  Said another way: “And if it was, does it matter?”

                  You’re following the narcissist’s prayer to a tee.

                  • Arete@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    English
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    arrow-down
                    11
                    ·
                    1 year ago

                    If it was i’d be advocating a counter-invasion of Israel and trials at the Hague. Don’t presume I support genocide just because I require evidence for it.

        • Excrubulent@slrpnk.net
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          15
          arrow-down
          5
          ·
          edit-2
          1 year ago

          An ad hominem would be “you are wrong because you are a coward”. My statement was in effect “you are wrong and you are a coward”.

          You could call it an insult, although I would say it was a generous term for someone who offers up mealy mouthed equivocations over the wholesale slaughter of civilians from the air by a nuclear power.

          You didn’t say much that was wrong; you didn’t say much at all. You were just asking questions.

        • Warl0k3@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          13
          arrow-down
          3
          ·
          edit-2
          1 year ago

          But thats not an ad hominem attack, it’s a direct critique of the form your statement takes.

    • BunEnjoyer
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      11
      arrow-down
      23
      ·
      1 year ago

      Not only Urban warfare but a terrorist regime that is actively using its own civilians as human shields.

        • AnyProgressIsGood@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          arrow-down
          11
          ·
          1 year ago

          Well that proves Israel hates israelis. That settles it. They killed several of their own.

          Wars never have friendly fire or civilian casualties. Hamas never pretends to surrender just to suicide bomb.

          Israel is totes doing the genocide I guess

        • BunEnjoyer
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          arrow-down
          17
          ·
          edit-2
          1 year ago

          Yes that’s right they were, unsure what that has to do with the above.

          Military friendly fire incidents are also incredibly high in most conflicts.

          • Doorbook@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            17
            arrow-down
            3
            ·
            edit-2
            1 year ago

            Anthony Hurndall shared information about his son’s shooting, showcasing how Israeli military tactics are responsible for killing innocent people.

            Tom Hurndall was a photography student, International Solidarity Movement volunteer and an activist against the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories.

            In April 2003, the 22-year-old was shot by IDF sniper Taysir Hayb while assisting Palestinian children caught in the crossfire in Gaza. He was left in a coma and died nine months later.

            An investigation revealed that Soroka Hospital’s medical staff removed bullet fragments from Tom’s brain. Initially, the hospital claimed that his injuries were caused by a baseball bat. When that was refuted, the Israeli government claimed he was carrying a weapon and was a gunman.

            Hayb was later sentenced to eight years in prison for manslaughter after it was revealed that he thought he was following standard military procedure.

            “The investigation further revealed that, as standard practice, the IDF routinely falsely misrepresent civilians and children as militants, or as armed, and fabricate accounts of events as a pretext for their killing,” Hurndall, who is director of the Center for Justice, told The Times.

            • BunEnjoyer
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              3
              arrow-down
              15
              ·
              edit-2
              1 year ago

              Again unsure what this has to do with Hamas using civilians as human shields.

              This is really just a propaganda outlet for the muslim brotherhood eh?

              This is the same level of whataboutism that chinese nationalism when you point out that maybe some people died during the great leap forward.

              Can you just communicate in words what you’re trying to say? I can pull up stories making either side look worse too.

              • Doorbook@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                5
                arrow-down
                3
                ·
                1 year ago

                As talks to extend the truce between Israel and Hamas continued on Wednesday before a looming deadline, the Israeli army raided the Jenin refugee camp, causing widespread destruction and killing four Palestinians, including two children.

                Adam Samer al-Ghoul, 8, was shot in the head and Basil Suleiman Abu al-Wafa, 15, died after he was shot in the chest.