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I think the beauty of decentralization is that in many ways monetization doesn’t have to be necessary. Or it can be necessary on a much smaller scale. A big company like Twitter or Reddit or Facebook needs to make money on a massive scale. A small company, like somebody running a big Lemmy instance, doesn’t need to answer to investors who expect a 10x return. They just have to cover their costs and maybe make a buck. So we go back to the old days like when we had independent forums, half of them were just free as a labor of love, the other half had a banner ad or two and maybe some way to support the site by donating. I think we were better off that way.
The utility of twitter, facebook and reddit is their ubiquity. They each, in their own way, became the place you go to find [thing], and federated services will never have that. Discovering mastodon users who aren’t already followed on your instance is hard. Discovering lemmy communities that aren’t already followed on your instance is slightly easier. They’re never going to show up in Local if they’re not local, and they’re never going to show up in All if no local subscribes. Decentralization, even with federation, works against virality, and if there’s not a steady flow of content, then few people bother to sign up.
The instances get exponentially more useful as they get larger, but the costs of operation also get exponentially larger. If lemmy catches on, instances will absolutely grow beyond donations.
I think while Mastodon and Lemmy don’t solve those issues particularly well at the moment I’m still confident they are solvable problems.
As for costs, I don’t think it’ll be that bad. It’s not nearly as expensive if you’re just trying to cover expenses (and not focused entirely on growth and revenue), and if a server does get to a point where the admins are concerned about donations keeping up they can cut off sign ups. Push incoming users to other instances that can handle the extra load (or spin up new ones if no more remain). It won’t be the cleanest process and the inconvenience will make it tough to capture a lot of the potential incoming growth but Lemmy doesn’t need to chase that growth entirely. It can grow at its own pace and handle what it can handle.
Sure but is anyone going to do a labor of love that costs $1000 or more a month. The scale of the net today vs back then isn’t even comparable. So many more users now there is a reason ads are everywhere and companies are closing or selling to the big guys. This is expensive.
I think that number is way too high.
The developers of Lemmy are doing it for free- unlike those of Reddit etc.
That means you just need the server resources to host the instance.
Now if you’re hosting hundreds of thousands of users, then sure it may get expensive. But the whole point is you have a few thousand here, a few thousand there, and thus the load gets greatly distributed.
Instead of 50 servers costing $1000+/mo, you have 500 servers costing $100/mo (or whatever).
And the $1000/mo server can collect enough in donations or simple ad banners to cover their costs.
What you’re missing isn’t costs, it’s profits. The little guys, and the big guys, all want to make a lot of money. They don’t want to cover their costs, they want to cover the mortgage on the beach house. Little companies often don’t make enough profit to do that, so they sell to the big guys who will slash costs and service and go profit-focused.
But start to run things with the goal of providing the service rather than the goal of making money and things change drastically. For most of its life, Reddit was ran with the goal of providing the service, which is why it grew so fast. Then a few years ago it shifted to the goal of making money and that’s when things went downhill- because they didn’t have a clue how to actually monetize the service so they pushed the ‘typical buttons’ (aka sell out the users) and of course the users are now pissed off.
But get rid of software dev costs, and look at just the hosting cost, and the number is MUCH lower.
There’s also the fact that we don’t need to host 52MM users. There aren’t going to be 52MM users on Lemmy anytime soon.