• humanspiral
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    5 days ago

    This is a false premise. Actual expansion of oil and gas production does lower those commodity prices, but policies/events so far raise them.

    • Maximizing strategic oil reserve holdings
    • LNG export infrastructure, especially if he can extort international customers to buy/divert from US consumption.
    • KSA vowing to invest $600B in US is a bribe to keep oil prices high. That enables funding their investment. KSA investments in past have been in non-oil industries.
    • Banning wind and EV adoption means more FF use/demand.
    • AI datacenters in US only, or massive funding for US ones, is more FF use.
    • unlikely but forced extra sanctions on Russian energy
    • possible regulation removal on capturing or even flaring NG from oil deposits would be aweful.

    The false premise is that letting O&G pollute everything, doesn’t make it “smart” for them to overproduce, and if they do drill more, than KSA/opec can ramp up production to take more share before they come online. Producing just enough extra to keep up with demand and $70+/barrel pricing is likely.

    EVs globally are eating into oil demand. China has also converted many trucks/heavy vehicles to LNG. NG and coal demand in Europe down over 10% in 2024. Peace in Ukraine would be the most significant drop in oil/diesel use foreseeable.