Balkanizing these imperial powers would be a step forward, though I think it will be best if this is done internally rather than by external powers. This too easily slides into factional conflict and imperialism rather than the far more winnable and liberatory conflict of people vs the elites.

It is a nice sentiment, but Assad government, nevermind US government, has enough power to suppress organic wishes for liberalization, and Assad rulership had a lot of liberal pluses, despite not being pro Israel/US enough for US to tolerate his rule. There were no easy solutions to famine/drought.

Your 2nd paragraph is spot on.