Ran this for 2023 if anyone is interested.

NFL 2023 QB ANY/As Scores Through Week 12

I think we may be arguing levels of bad here but let’s dissect the Titans metrics. Just looking at a final score doesn’t tell the full story.

The Titans get their scoring from five metrics

Blitz% - they have been blitzed the second most often behind the Colts

Penalties - The don’t commit many

Avg Pocket time - 2.51, which is quite good.

Overall block win rate is 64% which is above average

Blitz deflection is just a smidge above average.

On the flip side

Their YBC is below average

Their sack % and pressure% are even worse, near or at bottom.

So they are facing a lot of blitzing but still allowing for significantly above average time in pocket. They deal with blitzes about average(blitz deflection), but even with more than average time, the qb is being pressured and sacked. This would point more towards the quarterback than the line.

They don’t create a huge amount running lanes for the rush game. This is on the line, but they are not really abyssmal in this, just below average.

Conclusion - the lack of penalties is probably helping them in this system, but their passing woes may be more on the qb than on the line. Their overall block win rate is above average and there are just at least a half dozen other lines that are definitively worse when comparing them to Tennessee.

I can’t say I have watched every Titans game like a Titans fan, so I could be way off base, but this is what the stats are saying when comparing them to other offensive lines.

It is important to analyze the individual metrics to see how/why the offensive line’s final value may be distorted. Remember everything is comparative and essentially net zero. In ultra simple terms, for a team to score well in a metric another team must score poorly.

Much of what you say about Miami is correct, but i can’t agree with the Detroit part.

4.42 of Miami’s 5.42 rating is from YBC score. Take that away and Miami is an average line at 1.00, but that is still better than Detroit with all 8 metrics at 0.91.

Look at the metrics and Detroit doesn’t do anything particularly well save sack% or anything much below average except avg pocket time. They are just solid, and there is nothing wrong with solid. Now from game to game they may range from dominating to middling but this is an aggregate of 10 weeks.

I like Detroit as a team and was on them early if you read the week 6 offensive, defensive, and team grades calling them top 4 material. Unfortunately this is pure stats as compared to other line stats which is about as objective a measurement as possible.

And just to go back to Miami YBC…YBC score is being doubled in order to stress that a team that can dominate by running really doesn’t need to be great at pass blocking. This doubling may need to be adjusted in the future when I run the stats again, but everything has to start somewhere.

As far as the Rams, they score well in every metric and have no real weaknesses. Their total score came from just doing well in almost every metric save overall block win rate, and they were just below average in that.

+1 for the reddit name. I miss that guy.

there was an incorrect chart posted at one point. You may have been deceived by my posting ineptitude.

it was showing all auto 1st down penalties by down instead of by type and was same color and size and I missed it. sorry bout that. The correct chart is in place now.

Hi Alyssa! Nice to see you on the thread 8-)

If you read this as me implying the refs are purposely screwing the Saints, or secretly placing wagers on the Jags, then I messed up somewhere, and its my bad. Sorry bout that.

I agree with the decelerating penalties theory, but I believe it is especially prevelent when the NFL introduces a new protection rule(i think maybe 2020 & 2022 were last two years). I was not aware of a crackdown or implementation of new safety rules this year. In fact I would say they are simply enforcing the rules of 2020 & 2022 more often, and at times, incorrectly.

As far as complaining about too many penalties, that was not the aim of the article at all. It was to show there was a marked increase in a particularly damaging type of penalty and the timing of them. And while I agree we both can get the stats to say anything we want in the end, the statistics and math used do support the claim of a significant increase in 4th quarter auto 1st down passing penalties thus far this season.

Hope you have a nice week and good luck to your team!

I can try. Here is a poorly formatted chart that converts point spreads into win%. Note that a 3 point favorite is considered to have 59.4% win %. link to chart https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-spread-to-moneyline-conversion/

Home field advantage is often calculated as 3 points. So if we take that concept one step further down the line…

If referees were influencing games at around the +/-10% mark, they would be roughly adding or subtracting 3 points to the final score.

Point Spread Fav Win % Fav ML Dog Win % Dog ML

0 50.00% -100 50.00% +100

0.5 50.00% -100 50.00% +100

1 51.30% -105 48.80% +105

1.5 52.50% -111 47.50% +111

2 53.50% -115 46.50% +115

2.5 54.50% -120 45.50% +120

3 59.40% -146 40.60% +146

3.5 64.30% -180 35.70% +180

4 65.80% -192 34.20% +192

You are absolutely correct regarding records(not sure whether you ran this or felt it)

The combined record for the Top 16 Most Negatively Impacted By Auto 1st Down Penalties: 70 - 69

The record for the the Top 16 teams that have benefitted most by auto first down penalties: 67 - 68

Statistical Gold Star for you sir!