I used to think that Trump would win in 2024, but watching the gop drop the ball on the midterms changed my mind about that. I think Biden has it pretty easily as long as
- neither candidate has a major medical issue. Or a minor one in October.
- republicans don’t find a better strategy than trying to rile the hogs up about trans people
- no major economic shift happens between now and the election. Just high inflation with low wage growth isn’t enough to tip the needle imo
Obviously any of those are all reasonably likely to happen and who knows where things will end up when they do.
Or maybe… A mayor?