Before we can address the question, we have to address the criteria that is unstated but very obviously true. The order of importance of how MVPs are selected goes by the following:

  1. Your team has to be winning/playoff bound. (100% of MVPs in the last decade)
  2. You have to be a QB. (100% of MVPs the last decade)
  3. You have to be an extremely efficient QB. (90% of QBs were top 5 in EPA or ANY/A the last 10 years)
  4. You have to have enough bulk stats to back up your efficiency stats. (60% of them have been top 5 in Yards)
  5. You have to have fan recognition (be a big name/good story).

The only exception to the efficiency rule is Cam Newton in 2015, a year he had 10 rushing TDs.

The current leaders in EPA are:

  1. Purdy
  2. Dak
  3. Mahomes
  4. Allen
  5. Tags

The current ANY/A leaders are:

  1. Purdy
  2. Tags
  3. Stroud
  4. Goff
  5. Dak

Top 5 in yards per game:

  1. Stroud
  2. Cousins(injured) Tags
  3. Goff
  4. Howell
  5. Mahomes

(Dak is 6th, fyi)

Based off this, my initial thoughts are Purdy, Mahomes, Dak, Tags and Stroud.

Currently the top 5 for Vegas betting are:

  1. Mahomes
  2. Hurts
  3. Tags
  4. Jackson
  5. Burrow

This tells me that stupid bets are on Burrow, Hurts, Jackson and the smart money is on Mahomes or Tags. The real value? Purdy, Stroud and Dak at +2000-3000.

Of the 5 that seem most likely to compete for the award based on efficiency/bulk stats, here are their remaining schedules:

  • Mahomes: Eagles, Raiders x2, Packers, Bills, Pats, Bengals, Chargers
  • Stroud: Cards, Jags, Broncos, Jets, Titans x2, Browns, Colts
  • Tags: Raiders, Jets x2, WFT, Titans, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills
  • Dak: Panthers, WFT x2, Hawks, Bills, Lions
  • Purdy: Jags, Bucs, Eagles, Hawks, Cards, Ravens, WFT, Rams
  • IWasRightOnce@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Why does that tell you “smart money” is on Mahomes?

    All this tells us is that everyone has long accepted he is the best QB in the league, so even when his stats don’t justify being the MVP favorite a lot of people will still bet on him, so Vegas isn’t going to drop his odds.

    If anything this sounds like dumb money is on him.

    • FreddieFunkhouser@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      1 year ago

      bc you can get him at +300 right now

      he’s the media’s favorite qb and a safe choice for the writers who vote on the award. if other mvp candidates have a single bad game or he has one great game between now and the end of the season those odds will drop drastically

      he isn’t the most deserving choice this season but that hasn’t stopped voters before

  • pickleparty16@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    since nobody is having the clearly best year, its going to be one of the 2 qbs who lead their team to the 1 seed. though i have my doubts they give it to mahomes again even if kc gets the 1 seed, unless he goes on tear. if its still kc and phi on top at the end of the season, it might go to hurts.

  • dellscreenshot@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Why is tua ranked higher than purdy even though purdy has better numbers and their situations are similar(great skill guys, bad O-lines, great playcallers)?

    • Winterclaw42@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      1 year ago

      Purdy had 3 rough games in a row, maybe only the bengals were getting back into contender form. Got outplayed by cousins. Tua lost to 3 teams everyone thought were going to the SB (it was the bills last good game of the year).

  • jimmyhoffasbrother@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Not sure about accuracy of the other QBs’ remaining schedules, but you left out the Eagles and Dolphins on Dak’s list.

  • runningblack@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    I can only say that Purdy is not going to win MVP

    49ers are too stacked + the mid season slump where he “only” had CMC, Aiyuk, and Kittle (which is a skill position group most teams would kill for).

    This also feels like over fitting data to history - good QBs tend to have good advanced stats, but that’s a correlation, not causation, relationship.

  • datshinycharizard123@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Right now I’d say the best MVP odds are hurts Lamar and mahomes. Pretty much the criteria is be an excellent/ well known qb and be near the top of standings. Goff should be in the convo but I don’t think they like giving the lions that kinda press. I don’t think there’s any path for Purdy to win it because of how stacked that roster is. Purdy is not even a top 5 player on that offense, I think mccafery is a dark horse candidate as well, even tho they don’t really give it to RBs anymore.

    • Temporary_Bliss@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      1 year ago

      Media has really convinced you that the niners have so many weapons huh. Our OL sucks, purdy is running for his life half the time. The eagles have a stacked roster too (better WRs and OL) and no one calls out Hurts this year.

  • Winterclaw42@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Looks like ATM Tua is the only one who’s in the top 5 for all 3 categories. But he doesn’t have any “big game” wins this year. He’s also got to go against the Jets’ D twice so his stats will look a little uglier in the next 5ish weeks unless he runs up the numbers against weak teams.

    Still half a season to go so it’s probably Mahomes.

  • Balls_Deep92@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Presently, Hurts is the leader by a wide margin in my opinion, but these next 4-5 weeks will either solidify him for MVP or it’ll open the race back up. Also Vegas lines aren’t a reflection of what’s most likely to happen, they’re a reflection of the public’s opinion on said event

  • bloodlion87@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    I feel like Goff would have a shot but we score to many rushing TDs. If we were more pass heavy he’s maybe on 19 right now and a MVP favourite.

  • 1106DaysLater@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Feels odd to me to mention that 6/10 have been top 5 in passing yards and not mention 5/10 led the league in passing TDs, and 10/10 were top 5 in passing TDs.