Shouldn’t we put more weight into your friends opinion?
Another person replied to me with a list of things that are a constant in our world. Except ‘collapse of civ’ which is exactly the kind of conclusion I’m raising doubts on as there isn’t as much to support it. Again, focused on regional impacts and not places that are going to be obliterated.
Another person said ‘wait till permafrost melts’. This is already baked into models, it’s not expected that all permafrost is going to melt everywhere.
Idk. I’m eagerly waiting for AR7 and I’m regularly checking in on a few places. I’m aware of the narrative that IPCC leans towards conservative estimates or is overly optimistic. Internet forums don’t seem to offer much to this conversation and it’s mostly people echoing what they already believe. I’m not seeing any exceptions to that norm here in this thread.
That’s not the effects I’m talking about - what we were talking about specifically was water shortages, across the US we’ve drained aquifers that will need centuries to build back up. Another fun side effect is crazy sinkholes
Droughts and lack of snowpack obviously play into it, but across the Western states it’s already a critical problem - and we’ve done very little to address it. We don’t have a plan, and the problem isn’t going to fix itself - wild ideas like water pipelines across multiple states have been proposed, we could provide drinking water in tankers temporarily, but ultimately this just buys a bit more time. This is a right now problem - we’ve been rationing and talking about this future problem since I was a child, but water needs have only gone up
As for other similar issues happening right now - wildfires across the continent, massive floods everywhere, massive crop failures in China and India, Spain turning into a desert, algae blooms killing already depleted fisheries, deadly heatwaves, polar vortexes, bigger and slower hurricanes hitting places unprepared for them - the list goes on
It’s a right now problem. It affects the vulnerable first, but it’s already touched all of us in one way or another. But what happens when the sinks in salt lake City run dry? What happens when someone’s house is burned down in a wildfire, twice? What happens when the power grid of Texas keeps going down every heat wave or cold snap?
People who can move will move. People who can’t will die in place or become climate refugees when things get bad enough. It will be just inconveniences and news of distant tragedies until somewhere hits a tipping point - hopefully you’re not in the wrong place at the wrong time, but even then you’ll feel the aftershocks
Shouldn’t we put more weight into your friends opinion?
Another person replied to me with a list of things that are a constant in our world. Except ‘collapse of civ’ which is exactly the kind of conclusion I’m raising doubts on as there isn’t as much to support it. Again, focused on regional impacts and not places that are going to be obliterated.
Another person said ‘wait till permafrost melts’. This is already baked into models, it’s not expected that all permafrost is going to melt everywhere.
Idk. I’m eagerly waiting for AR7 and I’m regularly checking in on a few places. I’m aware of the narrative that IPCC leans towards conservative estimates or is overly optimistic. Internet forums don’t seem to offer much to this conversation and it’s mostly people echoing what they already believe. I’m not seeing any exceptions to that norm here in this thread.
The few places:
An article/search topic that swayed me a while ago:
I expect that geoengineering is going to happen on a larger scale, it would be counter to how people operate to not pursue that option.
That’s not the effects I’m talking about - what we were talking about specifically was water shortages, across the US we’ve drained aquifers that will need centuries to build back up. Another fun side effect is crazy sinkholes
Droughts and lack of snowpack obviously play into it, but across the Western states it’s already a critical problem - and we’ve done very little to address it. We don’t have a plan, and the problem isn’t going to fix itself - wild ideas like water pipelines across multiple states have been proposed, we could provide drinking water in tankers temporarily, but ultimately this just buys a bit more time. This is a right now problem - we’ve been rationing and talking about this future problem since I was a child, but water needs have only gone up
As for other similar issues happening right now - wildfires across the continent, massive floods everywhere, massive crop failures in China and India, Spain turning into a desert, algae blooms killing already depleted fisheries, deadly heatwaves, polar vortexes, bigger and slower hurricanes hitting places unprepared for them - the list goes on
It’s a right now problem. It affects the vulnerable first, but it’s already touched all of us in one way or another. But what happens when the sinks in salt lake City run dry? What happens when someone’s house is burned down in a wildfire, twice? What happens when the power grid of Texas keeps going down every heat wave or cold snap?
People who can move will move. People who can’t will die in place or become climate refugees when things get bad enough. It will be just inconveniences and news of distant tragedies until somewhere hits a tipping point - hopefully you’re not in the wrong place at the wrong time, but even then you’ll feel the aftershocks