538 predicts a 2020 sized Harris victory, Georgia and North Carolina flip. THQ predicts a tight Harris win, mostly in the Rust Belt & maybe a NC grab? RCP predicts a tight Trump victory via Pennsylvania.
All 3 agree on Georgia going red and Michigan and Wisconsin going blue. Those states have held their colors firm for quite some time.
Nate went over his issues with the model… And they seemed well founded. Trying to say Biden was a favorite at the end… Just didn’t seem like it had any defendable points. You have to question the methodology at that point. It refused to decline his chances in the face of declining polls and terrible news cycles. L