538 predicts a 2020 sized Harris victory, Georgia and North Carolina flip. THQ predicts a tight Harris win, mostly in the Rust Belt & maybe a NC grab? RCP predicts a tight Trump victory via Pennsylvania.
All 3 agree on Georgia going red and Michigan and Wisconsin going blue. Those states have held their colors firm for quite some time.
The governor is a popularly elected position; parties can’t gerrymander their way out of that. Roy Cooper–the governor of NC–is a Democrat. So even if the Republican party can gerrymander the shit out of the state to keep control of the legislative body, they can’t take the governor’s position.
OTOH, Kemp annihilated Stacy Abrams twice in a row. The first time it was a little close. This last time it wasn’t.