Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s right-wing prime minister, has several populist policies, one of which has been to grow Hungary’s native population.
But early successes appear to be running out of steam in Hungary, as its birth rate is still falling despite huge incentives being offered to new parents.
Populations across Western Europe are struggling with falling birth rates, which threaten long-term economic growth and could create a healthcare crisis as fewer young people are forced to care for and subsidize an increasingly older population.
However, financial barriers, such as rising accommodation prices, are a major obstacle to childbearing, which has been compounded by the cost of living crisis. Changing workplace dynamics, with more women enjoying meaningful careers, also push back the average age for couples to have their first child.
Immigration is regarded as the most realistic way of maintaining an optimal average population age, but that has become highly politically contentious since the global financial crash.
Hungary is particularly sensitive to immigration, which Orbán has repeatedly argued would harm the country’s cultural fabric. From 2025, immigrants from non-EU countries will have to pass a Hungarian history and culture test to become residents of the country.
Instead, it is championing the classic populist policy of increased childbirth among natives.
“We do not need numbers, but Hungarian children,” Orbán said in his State of the Nation address in 2019 as he rolled out childbirth incentives.
To do so, Hungary is offering weighty financial incentives to up appearances in its hospital’s midwifery units.
In 2019, Hungary offered parents a €30,000 interest-free loan to spend on anything they wanted. The loan would be forgiven if they had three children.
Mothers of four children or more are exempt from paying income taxes under Orbán’s policy, which could be extended to those with fewer children.
Hungary’s birth rate rose through the 2010s, rising from a record low of 1.25 in 2011 to 1.61 in 2021. But in recent years, growth has halted. In June, Hungary registered a record-low number of 6,000 births.
Whenever I see articles on this subject I think that perhaps the answer is not more children, but planning how to manage an overall general decrease in population. Overpopulation is part of the trouble with how we deal with the environment, so perhaps we should embrace it rather than try to avoid it
Thr big problem with this is that pretty much all of our systems rely on infinite uninterrupted growth (e.g. social security) which is just not possible. Rather than tear it down and/or build new systems that dont rely on this, many people who have paid into the system feel ripped off that they have paid into it but will never see the benefits. The people currently collecting hold a lot of political and financial power and would never vote to interrupt that even for the benefit of future generations.
That won’t provide a future workforce for the rich and/or powerful in an nationalist society though.
Can’t be a shepherd if you don’t have sheep.