I actually agree that Biden’s performance was a big problem. Also, the polls are feckin useless, but seeing the relative change that happened because of some event is actually like the one thing they can do pretty well. If you remember the middle school science chart of accuracy vs. precision, they have dogshit accuracy which was off by an average of 16 percentage points when I investigated it for some recent elections, but against all odds they actually are precise.

So, that said: Here’s an overview of recent polling.

• Trump’s polls really did drop by quite a few points after he was convicted. The same outlets freaking the fuck out over Biden’s YouGov polling dropping from 42/42 to now 40/42, didn’t say a goddamned word about Trump’s “debacle” of being convicted of etc etc when his polls dropped by more than that; in fact they wrote the exact opposite story.
• The massive tanking of support which was predicted did not materialize. IDK what’s up with this NYT poll, but what the fuck, just look at the other ones. He dropped a couple percentage points. It’s not real good but it’s actually a lot less than I expected given how bad the debate was.
• All the other Democratic possibilities are worse. The issue actually isn’t Biden. The issue is that the news misrepresents reality so aggressively and mendaciously that people can’t figure out whether it’s a better idea to take home a cat that’s got some health problems, or a rabid dog. That’s the root of the whole “Michelle Obama” story – I think they were looking desperately for some story to write that wasn’t “but Biden is still better than every other alternative except Kamala Harris who he’s 2 points behind, and we can’t write about her being good because she’s a realistic replacement and writing good things about her might actually create good things for the Democrats and I’ll get in trouble with my boss.”

I am beginning to share Trump’s hatred for the media