I agree with every point you make other than the battery swap one. I really don’t think there’s a future in it. It’s a cool feature but it just seems so overly complicated for basically only a very small convenience. A convenience that only exists if you’re used to ICE cars. After a while people are not going to care because they will be so used to electric vehicles they’ll just get used to charging them up every now and then whenever they stop anywhere, so it’ll be a non-issue.
Battery swaps are only really useful if your battery is completely dead. Most people aren’t going to completely drain the battery under normal operation. Your average commute is less than an 60 mile round trip, if you charge up every night you can essentially pretend you have an infinite battery.
People are going to look around and ask, why am I paying so much money to get a battery swap capable vehicle, when I only use the feature maybe once or twice a year on a road trip?
I feel like we’ve had this discussion elsewhere… :-) I apologize for the long reply, if so.
Here’s why I think battery swap makes sense:
For the vast majority of people, cars are a means to an end. Like the saying: people don’t want a drill, they want a hole. They want to get from point A to B, get something done, then come back and get on with their life.
Charging for 10-40 minutes at a time adds friction to the A to B and back process. People are used to stopping for gas, gritting their teeth at how expensive it is, filling up, then moving on and not giving it another thought.
Charging while shopping/parking, etc. is fine, except when the spots are all taken. As more people get EVs, this will happen more often. There’s no point having an infinite battery if you can’t find an open charger when you’re running into a store.
L2 charging at home is convenient. They should keep letting people do that. But it adds $500-$2K to the cost of switching from ICE to EV. It’s also not easily available to people in rental apartments and high-rise condos. Some landlords are adding L2 chargers, but now you have to deal with charger congestion. Same with L2 chargers at offices, grocery stores, and parking lots.
Not having L2 at home means L1 (take forever), public L2 (see above), or having to pop into L3 chargers every few days (broken units, congested, expensive, affects life of battery).
L2 charging off home solar and battery is the BEST (zero blackouts, zero monthly power bills 🎉, and feeling superior to mere mortals). But now we’ve added $5-$30K to the switching cost. Definitely a luxury. Also, Fuck You Todd, you supercilious prick.
J1772, CHAdeMO, CCS1, CCS2, GB/T, NACS. Just shoot me now. Try explaining that insanity to Grandpa without feeling like a tool.
Most decently made ICE cars last a long time (10-40 years) and have a resale/trade-in value. The things that lower the value over time (engine, cylinders, transmission, radiator, catalytic converter, exhaust) don’t exist in EVs.
The main thing that can wear down and affect resale in EVs is… the battery. By most accounts, 10 years and number of fast-charge cycles is the limit. Then you either replace the battery or take a big loss on resale.
A lot of hybrid Priuses had to have battery replacements once they hit the 10-year mark. Nissans used to show the number of recharge cycles adding to anxiety levels over how much time was left on the car.
Here’s why swapping makes sense: it removes all of the above.
Every issue becomes a non-issue if there were universal swap stations sprinkled around neighborhoods.
Like most things, there’s a trade-off:
I’m getting a nasty old battery on this swap.
I don’t actually own the battery in my car. That affects the resale value.
There is no single battery pack standard. It’s not a scalable solution.
The first one is mitigated by the fact that the solution is to just swap again. Or even better, have a smart BMS that reports back to the swap station data on charge depletion. That way it knows to take the bad battery packs out of circulation or refurbish the cells. It can also setup economics where the older packs cost less to swap, for people willing to trade fuel cost for convenience.
The second is where I think the logic is inverted. The battery locked inside my car is degrading over time and is actually dragging down the resale value. Taking it out of the equation means the resale value is now based on other attributes: wear and tear on motors, telematics, and consumables (tires, brakes, etc) all of which will be cheaper to replace than the battery.
The third one is the most important. We’re 10-15 years into the EV adoption cycle. It’s not too late to plan ahead, if people actually demand it. NACS adoption announcements show us it’s possible for carmakers to agree on a single standard.
Notice I haven’t mentioned distance travel. That’s because stopping for a long charge can be a positive experience for some people who could use the physical break, but a pain in the ass for those who need to get to their destination quickly. Depends on which camp you fall into.
The distribution of non-Tesla supercharger networks in the U.S. is so uneven people have to decide whether to take an EV or ICE, depending on how close their destination is to a major highway. Yes, we can build out thousands more stations, but that’s not addressing the concern of those who just want to get from A to B and don’t have hours to spare.
Outside the U.S. the situation is much better, which is why EV adoption is going more smoothly (helps having a better selection of models). Also, in many parts of the world, public transportation is actually viable, so NO CAR is an option. But the A to B time and resale value concerns stand for many people looking for their next car.
Back to EVs. Here in the U.S. if you drive on a busy holiday to a major metropolitan area, once you get there, you’re risking spending a substantial part of that trip waiting and worrying. For a spot to open up, for how long to budget for charging, and how much to trust the app telling you there’s an open spot.
Personal anecdote: Today, I wouldn’t buy an EV in Southern California unless I could charge at home. Next time visiting, I’ll rent an ICE. It’s that bad.
When it comes to charging stations, I personally like talking to people and have had great conversations with some colorful characters while waiting, but that’s also time I’m not spending on the purpose of the trip.
Again, battery swapping would solve all that.
The first time I saw it in action was 7-8 years ago in Taiwan with Gogoro scooters (https://www.gogoro.com/gogoro-network/). Saw someone ride up to a 7-11, pull out their battery, pop in a new one, and be gone in 60 seconds. I was sold.
Bottom line: the best user experience is not having to spend a minute thinking about charging. Ever.
[ Again, sorry for the long soliloquy. This is the sort of topic best hashed over a pint while someone points at how daft I’m being. ]
I’m going to be honest, I got about half way through, I just wanted to add something some folks may not consider in this discussion.
Since I first got an EV almost a decade ago, I have spent less of my life waiting for it to charge than I had previously spent getting gas.
I’ll note that everyone’s situation is unique, and I’ve had the fortune/privilege of having private parking next to a 120v outlet at both of my previous rentals as well as my current home, but the 2s it takes for me to plug in every night, and the very rare 30 min charging session mixed into a 6hr road trip (when I’d be stopping for food/restroom anyways) means less time standing around at the charger than I would have spent at the pump.
I recognize this is a hard concept to sell to some ICE drivers, because all they hear is 30-minute charging session, but it’s real. Admittedly this is contingent on you having access to an outlet at home or work, which I recognize doesn’t apply to a subset of renters.
Battery swapping assumes battery and car technology doesn’t change. Just a couple years ago, you’d be looking at hour+ stops to recharge on a trip, now it’s approaching 30 minutes. Some of it’s the batteries, some is a better handle on what batteries can take, some of its newer higher voltage vehicles. If there’s any substance to Toyota’s FUD, it will be closer to 15 minutes in a couple more years.
So far it’s been a huge convenience to just plug in at night like I do my phone, and road trips are only a small percentage. Obviously that’s only a plus for those of us who can do that. We really need to focus on incenting landlords and HOAs to install chargers
I agree with every point you make other than the battery swap one. I really don’t think there’s a future in it. It’s a cool feature but it just seems so overly complicated for basically only a very small convenience. A convenience that only exists if you’re used to ICE cars. After a while people are not going to care because they will be so used to electric vehicles they’ll just get used to charging them up every now and then whenever they stop anywhere, so it’ll be a non-issue.
Battery swaps are only really useful if your battery is completely dead. Most people aren’t going to completely drain the battery under normal operation. Your average commute is less than an 60 mile round trip, if you charge up every night you can essentially pretend you have an infinite battery.
People are going to look around and ask, why am I paying so much money to get a battery swap capable vehicle, when I only use the feature maybe once or twice a year on a road trip?
I feel like we’ve had this discussion elsewhere… :-) I apologize for the long reply, if so.
Here’s why I think battery swap makes sense:
Here’s why swapping makes sense: it removes all of the above.
Every issue becomes a non-issue if there were universal swap stations sprinkled around neighborhoods.
Like most things, there’s a trade-off:
The first one is mitigated by the fact that the solution is to just swap again. Or even better, have a smart BMS that reports back to the swap station data on charge depletion. That way it knows to take the bad battery packs out of circulation or refurbish the cells. It can also setup economics where the older packs cost less to swap, for people willing to trade fuel cost for convenience.
The second is where I think the logic is inverted. The battery locked inside my car is degrading over time and is actually dragging down the resale value. Taking it out of the equation means the resale value is now based on other attributes: wear and tear on motors, telematics, and consumables (tires, brakes, etc) all of which will be cheaper to replace than the battery.
The third one is the most important. We’re 10-15 years into the EV adoption cycle. It’s not too late to plan ahead, if people actually demand it. NACS adoption announcements show us it’s possible for carmakers to agree on a single standard.
Notice I haven’t mentioned distance travel. That’s because stopping for a long charge can be a positive experience for some people who could use the physical break, but a pain in the ass for those who need to get to their destination quickly. Depends on which camp you fall into.
The distribution of non-Tesla supercharger networks in the U.S. is so uneven people have to decide whether to take an EV or ICE, depending on how close their destination is to a major highway. Yes, we can build out thousands more stations, but that’s not addressing the concern of those who just want to get from A to B and don’t have hours to spare.
Outside the U.S. the situation is much better, which is why EV adoption is going more smoothly (helps having a better selection of models). Also, in many parts of the world, public transportation is actually viable, so NO CAR is an option. But the A to B time and resale value concerns stand for many people looking for their next car.
Back to EVs. Here in the U.S. if you drive on a busy holiday to a major metropolitan area, once you get there, you’re risking spending a substantial part of that trip waiting and worrying. For a spot to open up, for how long to budget for charging, and how much to trust the app telling you there’s an open spot.
Personal anecdote: Today, I wouldn’t buy an EV in Southern California unless I could charge at home. Next time visiting, I’ll rent an ICE. It’s that bad.
When it comes to charging stations, I personally like talking to people and have had great conversations with some colorful characters while waiting, but that’s also time I’m not spending on the purpose of the trip.
Again, battery swapping would solve all that.
The first time I saw it in action was 7-8 years ago in Taiwan with Gogoro scooters (https://www.gogoro.com/gogoro-network/). Saw someone ride up to a 7-11, pull out their battery, pop in a new one, and be gone in 60 seconds. I was sold.
Bottom line: the best user experience is not having to spend a minute thinking about charging. Ever.
[ Again, sorry for the long soliloquy. This is the sort of topic best hashed over a pint while someone points at how daft I’m being. ]
I’m going to be honest, I got about half way through, I just wanted to add something some folks may not consider in this discussion.
Since I first got an EV almost a decade ago, I have spent less of my life waiting for it to charge than I had previously spent getting gas.
I’ll note that everyone’s situation is unique, and I’ve had the fortune/privilege of having private parking next to a 120v outlet at both of my previous rentals as well as my current home, but the 2s it takes for me to plug in every night, and the very rare 30 min charging session mixed into a 6hr road trip (when I’d be stopping for food/restroom anyways) means less time standing around at the charger than I would have spent at the pump.
I recognize this is a hard concept to sell to some ICE drivers, because all they hear is 30-minute charging session, but it’s real. Admittedly this is contingent on you having access to an outlet at home or work, which I recognize doesn’t apply to a subset of renters.
Battery swapping assumes battery and car technology doesn’t change. Just a couple years ago, you’d be looking at hour+ stops to recharge on a trip, now it’s approaching 30 minutes. Some of it’s the batteries, some is a better handle on what batteries can take, some of its newer higher voltage vehicles. If there’s any substance to Toyota’s FUD, it will be closer to 15 minutes in a couple more years.
So far it’s been a huge convenience to just plug in at night like I do my phone, and road trips are only a small percentage. Obviously that’s only a plus for those of us who can do that. We really need to focus on incenting landlords and HOAs to install chargers