I suspect it may be something midway between those things. The shape of the curve is the same as the shape of the curve of growth of most biological systems. There are physical laws that make Moore’s Law a reasonable short-term hypothesis.
Eventually to maintain the law we would have to make the item bigger so it can contain more transistors. Which defeats the spirit of the law which is miniaturisation.
biological systems also become bottlenecked. Unbounded growth does not exist in reality. The actual curve is the sigmoid. We’ve just only been seeing the first half of the curve.
Reading Moore’s paper (which is the reference of the marketing person who coined the term), Moore’s law isn’t just miniaturisation, it was also an observation that’s the economics would improve. ie that building N transistors is cheaper on the next smaller node than the previous.
And without the economics working, the shrinking would never have occurred at the rate it did for so long.
So yes, it getting bigger would be against the spirit of the law.
I suspect it may be something midway between those things. The shape of the curve is the same as the shape of the curve of growth of most biological systems. There are physical laws that make Moore’s Law a reasonable short-term hypothesis.
Eventually to maintain the law we would have to make the item bigger so it can contain more transistors. Which defeats the spirit of the law which is miniaturisation.
biological systems also become bottlenecked. Unbounded growth does not exist in reality. The actual curve is the sigmoid. We’ve just only been seeing the first half of the curve.
Do you think we’re somewhere on the second part of the curve then?
Reading Moore’s paper (which is the reference of the marketing person who coined the term), Moore’s law isn’t just miniaturisation, it was also an observation that’s the economics would improve. ie that building N transistors is cheaper on the next smaller node than the previous.
And without the economics working, the shrinking would never have occurred at the rate it did for so long.
So yes, it getting bigger would be against the spirit of the law.