What hurdles does a peace plan face? The fact that Krasnov will not stop at simply ending US support, or even removing the US from NATO. He will take more and more measures to punish European support of ukraine, in order to try and get a better settlement for his boss in the Kremlin
The reason the crazy has been turned up to 12, is because Russia is stalled and their position gets weaker from here on in. Russia can’t advance, they’ve been smashing their hollow skulls against Pokrovsk and Toretsk for nearly a year. Ukraine is countering their FAB glide bombs now, is beginning slowly to push back in the Donbas, and domestic drone and weapon production is lessening their level of dependency on outside sources like the US. Ukraine hasn’t conscripted anyone under 25, and are getting decent uptake on the volunteer enlistment packages. Russia, on the other hand, has stalled, is sending men into battle on dirtbikes and donkeys, can’t remotely replace their hardware losses in any aspect, and if they wanted more manpower today, they would have had to enact wider conscription 6 months ago. Which they didn’t. Their capacity to make significant gains in Ukraine has essentially stopped, but Ukraine’s ability to erode their current holdings is accelerating.
In short - Russia’ options get worse from here on in. That’s why Trump is, on obvious orders, trying to strong arm a ludicrous deal that ukraine doesn’t need to accept. Trump isn’t going to stop punishing ukraine’s supporters until Russia gets more than it deserves, given the state of things on the ground.
What hurdles does a peace plan face? The fact that Krasnov will not stop at simply ending US support, or even removing the US from NATO. He will take more and more measures to punish European support of ukraine, in order to try and get a better settlement for his boss in the Kremlin
The reason the crazy has been turned up to 12, is because Russia is stalled and their position gets weaker from here on in. Russia can’t advance, they’ve been smashing their hollow skulls against Pokrovsk and Toretsk for nearly a year. Ukraine is countering their FAB glide bombs now, is beginning slowly to push back in the Donbas, and domestic drone and weapon production is lessening their level of dependency on outside sources like the US. Ukraine hasn’t conscripted anyone under 25, and are getting decent uptake on the volunteer enlistment packages. Russia, on the other hand, has stalled, is sending men into battle on dirtbikes and donkeys, can’t remotely replace their hardware losses in any aspect, and if they wanted more manpower today, they would have had to enact wider conscription 6 months ago. Which they didn’t. Their capacity to make significant gains in Ukraine has essentially stopped, but Ukraine’s ability to erode their current holdings is accelerating.
In short - Russia’ options get worse from here on in. That’s why Trump is, on obvious orders, trying to strong arm a ludicrous deal that ukraine doesn’t need to accept. Trump isn’t going to stop punishing ukraine’s supporters until Russia gets more than it deserves, given the state of things on the ground.