Summary
Tesla’s European sales are plummeting, with Germany seeing a 60% drop despite strong EV growth. Similar declines hit Norway, Sweden, and France.
While some blame the Osborne effect—buyers delaying purchases for a refreshed Model Y—Musk’s endorsement of Germany’s far-right AfD may also be repelling customers.
Online backlash has linked Tesla to fascist imagery. In contrast, UK sales fell only 7.8%, suggesting political factors play a role.
With strong domestic EV competition in Europe, Tesla’s reputation crisis could further hurt demand.
The share price isn’t based on car sales. If it were just about car sales, it would be about 10% of the price it is now.
The share price is mostly ridiculous, but it is also people trying to get in early, on the assumption that they solve FSD, battery storage, Optimus (their robot), and battery manufacturing.
If they solve all of this, then Tesla could 10x again. It’s very future dependent, and I think that future is a lot longer away than a lot of other shareholders think.
I got in at ~$20 per share. I’ve significantly reduced my position over the last few months, but I do still believe in the original mission of Tesla. I just don’t think they’re going to get there with Elon.
IMHO only FSD is something they could potentially achieve, but it took them so long the competition is catching up. At least in Europe (where Teslas have barely functioning traffic sign recognition) other manufacturers have level 3 ADAS in production. Like legally certified and everything.
Their batteries ( both mobile and grid storage) are nothing special, the 4680 is MiA, catl and BYD have bigger market shares already, I don’t know about Panasonic and other manufacturers, could be too.
And the robot is vaporware unless proven otherwise.
I’m not a gambler so I won’t short it (Elon can give himself trillions in government assistance now), but sure as hell wouldn’t hold it anymore.
Their batteries may not be special, but if they can scale to what they were promising a few years ago (which is a much bigger “if” than it used to be), their battery business could easily surpass BYD’s, which could justify its current market cap on its own (but not much higher).
I’ve got mixed feelings on FSD. I think it’s nearly “solved” for places with nice climate, but I think there’s a lot of work needed to deal with inclement weather like snow and slush and even heavy rain. I don’t think any company has any idea how to solve that issue, so they’re just pushing it down the road until someone else solves it first.
How would they scale it? I don’t think they have the factories even if they figure out the process. Last time I looked they had 2 (or 3?) locations.
Their factories in Nevada, Texas, and China all have a lot of extra space and/or land for expansion. They’ve also been considering building more factories in Mexico, another one in Europe, and possibly SE Asia, though it’s unclear whether any of those are going to materialize - especially with the current downturn in sales.