This brief examines the implications of the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian and Israeli–Lebanese conflicts for the Kingdom of Jordan. While once seen as a central actor in the Israel–Palestine conflict, Jordan has not received significant consideration by the U.S. foreign policy establishment since the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. This oversight could prove perilous, as a destabilized Jordan would have broad effects across the region. This brief draws on firsthand author interviews with top-level Jordanian officials, Islamist leaders, journalists, and other experts to examine the kingdom’s outlook.

Since Jordan reached a peace deal with Israel in 1994, the kingdom has emerged as a strong American partner in the Middle East, exemplified by the two countries signing a fourth Memorandum of Understanding in 2022, in which the U.S. agreed to provide Jordan with $1.45 billion of assistance annually. Despite the assistance, the U.S.–Jordanian relationship has become increasingly uncertain as the United States provides unconditional support for Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Opposition to Israel’s wars has united the Jordanian public, which is distancing itself from the U.S. and Israel by widespread participation in the boycotts of American and European products and growing support for the main Islamist political party.

The prospect of Israel annexing the West Bank, an idea increasingly bandied about within Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Cabinet, would be especially threatening to Jordan. Many Jordanians now question if Israel aims not merely to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, but to revive the idea that Jordan is Palestine — a notion that is categorically rejected by the Jordanian government.

A large-scale exodus of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan would lead to a profound crisis. With the kingdom already hosting over a million refugees — more of whom may arrive following Assad’s downfall and subsequent unrest — beset with economic problems, and incapable of providing water to its existing population, King Abdullah II’s continued rule could be jeopardized.

While the Trump administration’s position on Israel’s potential seizure of the West Bank remains to be seen, it is clear that a destabilized Jordan would be at odds with U.S. interests. Ultimately, to fulfill his campaign pledge to end the forever wars in the Middle East, Trump may have to choose between reining in Israeli actions, or risk greater conflict in Jordan and beyond.