Yes most likely. My calculations are more worst case scenario with the top 8 teams beating the bottom 2 teams and then sharing wins between each other. Mathematically 8th can get as much as 31 but 32 guarantees without tiebreakers. But I’m sure there’ll be lots of draws and maybe a few upsets which will bring my numbers down

Still 34 points needed to guarantee at least 6th and direct qualification after matchday 4. 32 points will guarantee 7th and playoff spot

Not anymore. Since Netherlands beat Greece they are equal on points and head to head is the first tie breaker. Netherlands ahead of Greece on that. Greece has one game left against France and Netherlands two, first against Ireland and the Gibraltar. Netherlands only need one win to qualify regardless of how much Greece bear France if that even happens. Ireland can play to win against Netherlands because it will help them long term with FIFA ranking. Netherlands will 99.% beat Gibraltar. Ireland will have to hope for other results outside of their group which they have no control of.

For anyone interested, at this stage, 34 points will guarantee at least 6th and direct qualification. 32 points guarantees 7th and at least a playoff spot. At the other end, 8 points is needed to least obtain the playoff spot at the very minimum. These totals could of course change after next matchday.