I’ve gotten 5 messages from her, do I get a prize or something?

I have; it goes to what seems like a pretty normal server with an owner that has apparently been completely inactive. Nothing obviously sketchy but I didn’t stick around long.

Yep, even the best telescopes have a bit of inaccuracy in their measurements, and we haven’t been tracking it for long enough to determine its orbit with enough precision to know its exact trajectory.

That sucks, it’s always hit or miss with weather. I was obsessively watching the forecasts and ended up driving 3 hours away where clearer skies were predicted.

Looks great! I’m still out taking pics; I’ll have to post some of my own after I get some sleep.

The calculations for the close approach data I’m using to calculate the probability already take the Moon’s orbit into account.

I didn’t, care to enlighten me?

It’s going far too fast to be gravitationally captured.

Sure thing!

D_nominal, D_min, and D_max represent the most likely, minimum, and maximum (well technically not maximum, just 3 standard deviations from most likely, of which 99.7% of trajectories will fall within) distance 2024 YR4 will pass from the center of the Moon (NOT the surface). They’re taken from the linked NASA website. R_moon is the radius of the Moon.

L_impact is length of the impact corridor (the line where 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon). Since it doesn’t pass through the center of the Moon, it’s not simply 2*R_moon and so we need a simple formula to calculate it from R_moon and D_min.

P(x) is a probability density function; it’s the black curve you can see. It shows, for a given trajectory along the line of possible trajectories, how likely 2024 YR4 is to follow that trajectory. It’s shifted a bit from the center since the most likely trajectories are not exactly centered on the Moon. P_impact is the area of P(x) that falls within +/- L_impact, AKA the probability that the trajectory will intersect the Moon, AKA the impact probability.

The rest is just some graphing stuff that doesn’t matter to the calculation.

Good old Ctrl+X Ctrl+Z, Ctrl+V.

I support the message but that is some atrocious cropping.

T

You shouldn’t judge a book only by its cover, but the cover can give you a lot of information about the book.

Really sorry you have to deal with our idiotic president’s threats; know that most Americans don’t want Canada annexed either.

Teenager ≠ underage, 18 and 19 year olds exist. But thanks for your concern. :)

As a teenager who is relatively tech-savvy and on the fediverse, can confirm. I think it’s gotten to the point where even less technically inclined people can join fairly easily, but the more savvy are usually the first to flee from enshittifying platforms so we see a lot more of them here.

For all their flaws, Apple devices are a lot more user-friendly (as long as your desires are more or less aligned with Apple’s).

I left back in 2023; didn’t do anything besides purging my posts and comments and deleting my account. No sense doing anything spectacular, you’re just wasting your own time and causing more overall engagement on the platform. Though I suppose posting about the fediverse wouldn’t be the worst idea.

I remember seeing some news about R2R solar cell manufacturing last year; great to see they’re getting even closer to a viable product!

Relevant xkcd.