- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
California issues an RFQ (Request for Qualifications) in preparation of buying trainsets capable of travelling around 220mph (355km/h), two prototypes, a simulator, spare parts and operational availability for 30 years. Timeline for revenue operation currently is at year 2030.
E: Official release from California government: https://hsr.ca.gov/2023/08/24/news-release-california-high-speed-rail-authority-moves-closer-to-buying-first-trainsets/
I can understand your skepticism, but you may be slightly misinformed. High speed rail corridors don’t pop up overnight, and they take longer if you want it to be built as economically, safe, and well-thought out as possible. For this project we are about 15 years after voters approved the idea 2008, so that part is true as you say. So planning is done to get the most efficient and effective path which takes years, consulting the public takes years, building it takes more years, then testing and commissioning is the cherry on top. The American idea of “I can do this all by myself without any European/Asian help” is certainly slowing things down and making it expensive as well. Due to inflation the costs also will rise but so will the cost of any alternative be it maintaining highway systems, managing traffic and pollution.
See the progress of the project for yourself at their website. Or a detailed summary on the Wikipedia page.
These must be golf pegs for Godzilla! :)
Let me preface this by saying, I will be more than happy to be proven wrong regarding it’s completion in 2030.
I completely agree. When factoring the high cost, inflation, securing land rights, design approvals, legislation, funding, and the fact that “major components of the project (representing over half its cost) have no bidding or contract management experience. Thus, estimates for these are clearly suspect.” Additionally, “The Authority does not have stable and predictable revenue at either the state or federal level, as discussed earlier in this chapter” in addition to “Costs for large capital projects are also defined as a range, due to variables that include several factors beyond the Authority’s control, such as future inflation levels and industry conditions.” I acknowledge that you admitted to the issue of inflation, as well as them mentioning “Significant progress has been made despite this challenge.” However, based on the reasons mentioned, along with several that are mentioned on their website and the Wikipedia page further reinforce that I am doubtful this will be completed in 2030. This isn’t even considering unforeseen issues that may arise during development, management, and legislation. If anyone can also guarantee there won’t be any disruptive events in the next 7 years, along with managing to acquire these funds, design approvals, acquisition of land rights, then I’ll be happily convinced.
Once again, I will be more than happy to be proven wrong, because I have wanted to see this project completed for a long time now.
Yeah absolutely, and as I mentioned, the stubbornness of “Buy American”, and funding being stretched thin are big sources of why things aren’t happening sooner. This target, as Governor Newsom put it has a “risk factor” of 3 years after 2030 if unforseen things happen.
I think some people might be upset seeing a “train to nowhere” open first (between Bakersfield, Fresno and Mersed before the LA/SF and other major sections are completed, but it is happening and it is for the better.
I will acknowledge that progress is happening, and am glad that it is, but will remain skeptical due to the number of challenges they currently face along with any number of potential unforeseen issues. A “risk factor” of 3 years is also subject to variance beyond our calculations, in my opinion. However, I’m not stating this just to argue. I’m just skeptical because things don’t always go smoothly, despite how much I wish they would. Project deadlines vary for much smaller projects, so yes, I’m inclined to believe the same for something of this magnitude. I’ll be looking forward to it’s completion, and I hope that it is sooner than later.