the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes.
I think it’s much more than that really, but yes, that is the only way to slam the brakes on things, and even with that some feedbacks might be already too far into play.
Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales
And there is why even knowing what might have a chance doesn’t matter. This isn’t a “we should give up” viewpoint, but simply doing the math and physics. Because of what it takes energy-wise and logistics to remove that much carbon permanently from the cycle using zero emission energy sources (that we don’t have), it’s simply not going to happen. The “don’t give up” attitude isn’t to look for a fix, as even stopping all emissions right now won’t do that. It’s to realize that we have a harsh future ahead and to plan for just that, mitigate the damage as best we can and prepare for the worst. Anyone promising anything more than that is either ignorant of the facts, or is trying to sell you something while you’ll still buy.
Just read a new report:
'Climate crunch time is here,’ new UN report warns
Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, and urgent action must be taken to prevent catastrophic spikes in temperature and avoid the worst impact of climate change, according to a new report released on Thursday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
While I will remain vigilant, I have lost all hope. I won’t stop reducing, reusing, recycling, etc. But I expect to burn in a nightmare future regardless. This is what I consider a rational reading of the situation.
I’ve started to feel this way as well in a couple areas of my life. I’m not sure, but I think it’s probably bad to feel this way? Lol.
Like my outlook for my future doesn’t look good, but I also feel like I’ve stressed so much about it I’m kinda like…yeah ok, so now what. Stressing just makes me feel bad haha. Just keep moving forward I guess. Maybe I can correct the course at some point.
I think there’s a way of accepting that can be cathartic if you don’t let it bum you out and lose hope.
Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks. So yeah, do more with less. Drive less, fly less, consume less. Skip the damned cruise ships entirely.
For more, see below. Overconfidence in climate overshoot https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08020-9
Abstract
Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.
