Why can’t we all just get together at tell Rheinmetall, Nammo, etc. that we’ll buy as much as they can produce for the next five years, with possibilities for extensions?
The primary issue here is that with orders coming piecewise, manufacturers don’t have a strong enough incentive to ramp up production a hundred fold, which is what we need. That would also presumably reduce the per-unit production costs.
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I do hope that won’t be needed, I also don’t think the production capacity of European weapons manufacturers is at a level where we would need to move to a war economy to buy out everything they can produce (I may be wrong, in which case I’ll moderate my statement). Finally, I think that with peace-time regulations in place, manufacturers will take enough time to scale up production that we could literally buy everything they’re capable of producing without surpassing like 4% of GDP.
However, I can agree that a better, more moderated statement, would be “We’ll buy everything you can produce over the next five years, up to a limit of <insert absurdly large number here> per year”. To safeguard against accidentally agreeing to spending like 10 % of GDP on weapons.
The point is that manufacturers need an incentive to massively scaly up capacity now, because if shit hits the fan tomorrow, Europe will be suffering severe shell hunger, and other weapons deficits, for at least a couple years until we’re able to scale up production sufficiently.
I’m not worried about a war with Russia and Europe. Europe won’t start the war, they’re cool enough and know to behave. Rusia might might might be stupid enough to attack Europe but that will immediately draw in the US through NATO. Even if it doesn’t, the Russian army is in such a sad state that it can barely hold the relatively small lines in the Ukraine.
How well do you think they’d fare against a European sized line which has an economy nearly 10 times it’s size and a high tech well organized army? The only thing Russia has got going for it is that it can still throw some people for cannon fodder and not care whereas Europe cares a lot about casualties.
The issue is that 1000x the economy doesn’t help one bit unless you can use that economy to produce matériels. Currently, Russia’s production capacity for e.g. artillery shells is estimated to be larger than Europes.
We’re actively seeing in Ukraine that throwing cannon fodder at troops that are running low on ammo is a viable strategy if you can eat the losses, which Russia appears to be able to do.
Of course, I believe that Europe would be able to get its shot together and scale up weapons production if attacked. At the same time, I believe that while we are scaling up production, we would need to plug gaps in the line with bodies. In short: Do we really want to lose a bunch of people just because we waited to increase production until we were attacked?
Also, I think Europe should be capable of defending itself without the US. Having the US as an ally should be a bonus on top of already being a force capable of beating Russia.
Europe & US would gain air superiority within weeks. Once air superiority is there, artillery will be gone in weeks, and all that is left is guerilla tactics
You do realize that Russia is preparing for a war, right? Just asking in case you missed a few of the last months and Russias degenerated plan of a new, widespread empire…
Russia IS at war, and doing fucking terrible.
You’re talking an economy the size of Italy (a minor player in the EU) but with a territory more than 59 times that of Italy. It’s known for its deep corruption and the invasion of the Ukraine showed the miserable state of the Russian army.
Let’s ignore nukes and NATO for a second. Russia attacks Europe and it will get it’s ass handed backwards and inside out. If NATO is added, you can add the US army which brings that to utter obligation. Russia would not stand a fucking chance beyond guerilla warfare in its own territory.
All that would be really bad for Europe, probably too for the US, but Russia wouldn’t stand a chance.
The problem is nukes. Russia attacks NATO, the US WILL be involved and nukes will be a near inevitability. Once the first Juke goed off, they’ll all go off.
Given the current state of the Russian army and the level of corruption at every level, I’m guessing that the weapons that should never be used (nukes) are extremely expensive to maintain, and easy to scrape some money off for your second luxury boat, there nukes will likely no longer be in working order.
Russia fires a nuke, it’ll be its own death warrant whilst the rest of the world MIGHT survive.
In any case, Russia is going no where. They might have mighty plans but at this point it can count itself happy if they can be the lapdog of China. I’m much more worried about China, really.
@phoenixz @CapeWearingAeroplane Wake up, it is already needed!
Europe is not at war yet, hope it never will be
Europe is already at war, and it started much before 24.02.2024!
Europeans just do not want to get this fact.Yeah you need to calm down, and read a few dictionary definitions. Europe is NOT at war… Ukraine is, and you can start yammering about technicalities but you know damn well that there is a difference.
Yes, Russia is fucking about (and finding out) but if Russia actually attacks Europe it’s over. Likely not only for Russia, but for the world as that would immediately though NATO result in WWIII. Nukes WILL be involved, Russia will become a waste land and, depending on if Russia’s nukes still work (there is a non zero chance that a very large amount are no longer functional), Europe and the US too.
Let’s hope cooler.kinds prevail, as before. In the meantime though, stop panicking.
@phoenixz
I know what you mean, but… just a few facts to remind.- Russia had killed the President of Poland and many others. This is not yet proved, unfortunately, but I have no doubt of Russia’s role.
- A coup d’état in the capital of Montenegro, Podgorica was allegedly planned and prepared…
- Russo-Georgian War…
- Transnistria War…
Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine are the part of Europe, geographically.
Russia is constantly participating in European wars.
No panics! I’m a Ukrainian!
@phoenixz
5pi to add:
Poland is a NATO member, BTW.1 is beyond speculative.
All your points are from before the Ukraine war when people feared the Russian army. Let’s just say that the Ukrainian war really changed that perspective.
Because Germany. I mean what if next year a different camo pattern is in vogue? Then you’ll be stuck with all the orders of the old one and you’re the one that gets blamed.
The fuck does Germany have to do with this? Germany is the second largest donor right after the US, and by a wide margin too. Where the fuck is the rest of Europe? Where the fuck is the US backing their half-assed security guarantees from the Budapest Memorandum, after forcing Ukraine to give up their nukes & long range bombers? This constant idiotic scapegoating & disinformation spreading against Germany is really fucking annoying.
I was referring to the fucked up military procurement process in Germany. Here’s an excellent video with more details.
I get that much but Nammo isn’t even German and I’m pretty sure he generally meant the West as a whole.
@DarkThoughts @LaFinlandia @CapeWearingAeroplane @Diplomjodler3 Germany displays contradictory images. Yes, they are the second largest donor, in absolute numbers. Measured by their GDP, they are at the back. Ukraine is less than 1000 km from the German border, so security concerns should be quite high. The German government acts half-heartedly due to a long standing appeasement policy towards Ruzzia by the ruling social democratic party. They are not all-in which they should be.
Measured by their GDP, they are at the back.
Not really. They’re at 10th place with 1.2% and the only countries in front are small countries with a weaker economy, which benefit much more from GDP measurements. For comparison, the UK is at 20th place with 0.5%, the US at 29th and France at 30th place, both with 0.3% each, Italy at 34th place with not even 0.2%.
The German government acts half-heartedly due to a long standing appeasement policy towards Ruzzia by the ruling social democratic party.
Alright? If Germany acts halfheartedly because of your disinformation, what’s your excuse for literally everyone else being so much worse then? If “appeasement Germany” is one of the greatest supporters of Ukraine, then that paints an even darker image for all the other countries, no? Like, what does this say about the West? That they’re all Russian puppets? I’m really curious about how you’re rationalizing this with how you think about Germany.
They are not all-in which they should be.
Germany simply does not have much actual military gear, because after the cold war ended, everyone in Europe, especially the countries to the east of it, wanted Germany to demilitarize so that they’re not a threat again. Like, I’m sorry but you cannot expect a country to constantly flip-flop on their military. Changes like these are not just expensive but also take a lot of time. And just to be clear, by definition no one but Ukraine is “all-in”.
Drei (mutmaßlich) Deutsche streiten auf Englisch online darüber, ob Deutschland genug tut. Aber eigentlich sind sich alle einig, dass dies nicht der Fall ist, genau mein Humor.
I’m just fighting back against blatant disinformation.
Here’s hoping they’ll add another zero to those orders down the line.
Here’s hoping some other EU countries may back up Ukraine same scope Germany already did.
