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- cross-posted to:
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Globally, according to research by the Rocky Mountain Institute, EVs will comprise two-thirds of the world’s car sales by 2030. However, according to the World Resources Institute, “EVs need to account for 75 percent to 95 percent of passenger vehicle sales by 2030 in order to meet international climate goals aimed at keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).”
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There are electric 18 wheeler trucks about to be available in about a year. It is estimated that the truck would be paid off in 2 years by fuel savings alone.
Replacing diesel trucks will probably bridge the gap
Replacing long haul with rail and personal vehicles with public transportation will vastly lower the adoption
It really depends on where and when you’re charging.
Electricity isn’t free. I have a PHEV and for me in my area gas becomes cheaper after about $1.80/gal (IIRC). Electricity is more expensive to go per mile if I charge during peak times (for us that’s 4p-8p) when the price jump 3x, from 11¢/kWh to 33¢kWh. So the vehicle is scheduled to not charge during that time.
Diesel will offset that some since it’s more expensive than gas is and has been for years now. No one is going to pay a truck off in 2 years from savings. It’ll be faster, almost certainly. However, saying 2 years can’t be looking at the whole picture.
I really hate how this goal keeps being stated. When did it become the unchallenged truth that everyone needs to buy an EV? The goal was supposed to be transportation without carbon emissions. That could be solved in so many ways, from maglev trains to wind-powered ships to pedal- or foot-powered commuting. It should be solved with smart infrastructure and transportation strategy, not just more consumption. 
There are even multiple ways to power a personal vehicle that don’t have carbon emissions, and some of the most interesting ones are still emerging - hydrogen, ammonia - yet we are forging ahead like battery electric vehicles are the silver bullet to all of our problems. We are not going to fix our world of reckless consumption with more consumption… but we are going to make the shareholders of a few automotive companies very rich. Was that our goal?
Hydrogen is stupid for personal transport
our goal? no. their goal? always.
But have you considered line go up?
Agree. A new EV needs to drive many years to offset the carbon emission during production of said car. The best thing you can do for the environment (if you want to drive a car) is to keep driving the car you already have. Second best it’s too but a used car. It’s horrendous. We give tax credits to incentives people to buy new conspicuous shit, while punishing those that keep their old, healthy cars.
It’s totally Keyser Söze: the biggest trick the car industry pulled was convincing the public new, big EV cars were actually good for the environment.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/04/new-ev-vs-old-beater-which-is-better-for-the-environment/
According to a recent Reuters article using a model developed by the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago, the point at which an EV’s carbon footprint meets and begins to fall below that of a comparable gas vehicle in the United States is at around 13,500 miles. So after an average year of driving, the EV is better for the environment. Beyond that, the gap widens.
As for keeping your current car:
As far as manufacturing goes, the old car is already built, so let’s give it a pass regarding its manufacturing carbon footprint. According to a 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists report, a full-size long-range (265 miles) vehicle had a carbon footprint of about six tons, or 12,000 pounds.
In two years, the EV will have caught up to the used car in terms of ecological footprint. After that, as with new gas cars, an EV surpasses it in efficiency for its entire life cycle.
That’s cool. Thanks. It seems i stand corrected. I’ll look into it. Still it really shows how bad individual transportation is for the environment.
Yeah, I agree. I think trains / other stuff would be much better too. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect them to be as effective in countries like the US. At least not in the anywhere near future.
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👍 article.
Electric vehicles are 👍 if the energy used to charge the 🔋 is from renewable sources. If most of the energy used for charging is from fossil fuels, wide adoption of electric vehicles doesn’t aid much in resolving climate change.
A long time ago Veritasium said that vehicle making had a big environmental impact, so it was eco-friendly to use your old vehicle as long as possible. I did a quick search and didn’t find any relevant info. I asked Bing copilot and didn’t get a definite answer. But the joy that a new electric vehicle brings is sure. I may lean on buying a new 1.
